气象与环境学报2025，Vol.41Issue(3)：29-35,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.03.004
基于CMA-MESO模式的机场高影响低温事件预测能力评估及订正
Evaluation and correction of CMA-MESO predictability of low temperature event at airports
摘要
Abstract
Based on Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Report(METAR),meteorological station observation data,and numerical model products for 13 airports in Northeast China in 2021,this study analyzes and evaluates the performance of CMA-MESO temperature forecasts at airports prone to high-impact low temperature events,and examines the predictability of the high-impact low-temperature interval.The results indicate that the temperature forecasts for most airports are higher than the observations except for ZYDQ,the absolute error and root mean square error of airports in the northern,eastern,and high-altitude areas are significantly larger than those in plain areas;the temperature error,absolute error and root mean square error have obvious diurnal and seasonal variations with the largest forecast errors occurring at 06:00-07:00.When the forecasts of airport temperature are above 0℃,they are close to observations;when below 0℃,the forecasts are more clustered.After applying the cumulative probability density function correction method to the airport temperature forecast error for ZBES,ZYMH,and ZYLD airports,the hit rates for low temperature events increased by 56％,14％,and 9％,respectively.关键词
CMA-MESO/温度预报/机场低温事件/订正Key words
CMA-MESO/Temperature forecast/Airport low temperature event/Correction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈浩,何晓凤,唐娴..基于CMA-MESO模式的机场高影响低温事件预测能力评估及订正[J].气象与环境学报,2025,41(3):29-35,7.基金项目
华风集团基础型创新研究项目(CY-J2021006)和华风集团青年发展基金创新研究项目(QNFZ-2022002)共同资助. （CY-J2021006）
