气象与环境学报2025，Vol.41Issue(3)：52-60,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.03.007
内蒙古次百米级数值预报系统在复杂地形下的风场预报性能分析
Analysis on wind field forecast performance under complex terrains of the Sub-hundred-meter Numerical Forecast System of Inner Mongolia
摘要
Abstract
To meet the demand for high-precision weather forecasting services under complex terrains for the 14th National Winter Games,the Sub-hundred-meter Numerical Forecast System of Inner Mongolia(SNFS)was devel-oped by integrating large eddy simulation technology and high-resolution terrain data,specifically for the outdoor competition areas of the 14th National Winter Games.This paper uses the observational data from the competition area stations as references,and evaluates the wind field forecasting performance of the SNFS system in the three competition areas based on wind speed forecast evaluation indicators and assessment scores.The results indicate that there is a systematic overestimation of wind speed forecast in the Zhalantun and Kharchin competition areas,while an underestimation in the Liangcheng competition area.For stations at lower elevations,the forecast and ob-served wind speed deviations are mainly positive;with increasing station elevation,the wind speed deviations turn to negative and become more dispersed.The forecast for Zhalantun and Kharchin competition areas tend to overes-timate the wind weaker than Grade 6 and underestimated the wind stronger than or equal to Grade 6 in different lead times;while the Liangcheng competition area consistently underestimates the wind,and the Zhalantun compe-tition area shows a significant advantage in forecast score.Further analysis of an individual case of strong wind weather in the Zhalantun competition area shows that,the forecast wind direction is generally consistent with the observed wind direction,and the trend of wind speed change.The SNFS system can characterize the local flow field characteristics and has good forecasting capability for wind fields under complex terrains.关键词
中尺度模式/复杂地形/风速预报/检验评估Key words
Mesoscale model/Complex terrain/Wind speed forecast/Assessment and verification分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
姚晓娟,孙鑫,朱峰,刘林春,计燕霞,刘珂,孙哲中..内蒙古次百米级数值预报系统在复杂地形下的风场预报性能分析[J].气象与环境学报,2025,41(3):52-60,9.基金项目
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2023MS04002)、中国科学院"西部之光"人才培养计划项目、鄂尔多斯市重点研发计划项目(YF20240033)和华北区域气象科技创新项目(HBXM202414)共同资助. （2023MS04002）
