农业机械学报2025，Vol.56Issue(9)：503-516,14.DOI:10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2025.09.041
多情景视角下高原城市群土地利用变化与生态系统服务影响机制研究
Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services in Plateau Urban Agglomeration under Multi-scenario Perspective
摘要
Abstract
Land use change plays a pivotal role in driving ecosystem services(ES),and a systematic understanding of the underlying impact mechanisms is of great significance in promoting sustainable development in harmony with both people and the land.The central Yunnan urban agglomeration(CYUA)was selected as an example.Firstly,the convolutional neural network(CNN)-long short-term memory neural network(LSTM)-cellular automaton(CA)(CNN-LSTM-CA)model and multi-objective linear programming(MOP)model were employed to simulate the spatial patterns of land use change in the urban agglomeration under multiple scenarios in 2035.Five ES functions were assessed under these scenarios through integration with the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs(InVEST)model.Building upon this assessment,the ecosystem services contribution index(ESCI)and coupling coordination degree(CCD)model were constructed to quantify the impacts of land use change on ES.Furthermore,the self-organized feature mapping(SOFM)network was applied to identify ES bundles under varying scenarios.The results were summarized as follows.The CNN-LSTM-CA model can effectively extract the spatio-temporal neighbourhood features,with an overall simulation accuracy of 0.924 2,which surpassed other models in simulation accuracy and realism of land use distribution pattern.Under the ecological protection scenario(EPs),all ES exhibited an upward trend,with the exception of a decline in water yield and carbon storage services.In the economic development scenario(EDs),significant decreases were observed in carbon storage,soil retention,habitat quality,and water purification services.The natural development scenario(NDs)demonstrated an overall decline in ecological environment quality.Land use change significantly affected ES,particularly through the rapid expansion of built-up land and the reduction of forest land and grass land had resulting in a notable negative impact.The CCD between land use change and ES in the study area was generally favorable.These results contributed to a comprehensive understanding of the impact mechanisms of land use change on the spatio-temporal changes of ES in the region,offering effective support for territorial spatial planning and decision-making of urban agglomerations.关键词
土地利用变化/生态系统服务/贡献度/CNN-LSTM-CA/MOP/高原城市群Key words
land use change/ecosystem services/contribution level/CNN-LSTM-CA/MOP/plateau urban agglomeration分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
李坤,陈国平,赵俊三,杨海波..多情景视角下高原城市群土地利用变化与生态系统服务影响机制研究[J].农业机械学报,2025,56(9):503-516,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42301304)、地理信息工程国家重点实验室、测绘科学与地球空间信息技术自然资源部重点实验室联合基金项目(2024-04-14)、昆明理工大学校人培基金项目(KKZ3202421124)、云南省高校自然资源空间信息集成与应用科技创新团队项目(2019-15)和云金地青年科研基金项目(2024-02) （42301304）
