交通信息与安全2025，Vol.43Issue(2)：1-10,10.DOI:10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2025.01.001
基于关联规则挖掘的船员不安全行为致因网络分析
An Analysis of the Seafarers'Unsafe Actions Causality Network Based on Association Rule Mining
摘要
Abstract
Seafarers'unsafe actions are pivotal contributors to the frequent occurrence of waterborne traffic acci-dents.However,the majority of existing research tends to concentrate on the analysis of single factors,with insuffi-cient exploration of the underlying mechanisms involving the interplay of multiple factors.Based on 886 water-borne traffic accident investigation reports,unsafe actions and its causal factors are extracted by utilizing Grounded Theory.According to the framework of human factor analysis and classification system(HFACS),an analytical framework for the unsafe actions and causal factors is established,encompassing five levels and 76 factors.associa-tion rule mining(ARM)algorithm is utilized for the exploration of the coupling relationship and interaction be-tween the seafarers'unsafe actions.It reveals how various causal factors synergistically contribute to the occur-rence of seafarers'unsafe actions.By employing complex network theory,the results of association rule analysis are mapped onto a directed weighted network,constructing a causal network model for seafarers'unsafe actions.The key nodes influencing seafarers'unsafe actions are identified by analyzing the topological characteristics of the network.It is highlighted that the causation network of seafarers'unsafe actions exhibits typical small-world net-work characteristics,with an average clustering coefficient of 0.63 and an average path length of 2.095 2.This indi-cates that the influencing factors are closely interconnected,making it susceptible to triggering chain reactions.Among the strong association rules,"severe lookout negligence by watchkeeping seafarers"has a 55%probability of interacting with other factors to trigger other seafarers'unsafe actions.The betweenness centrality value of it is approximately 0.262 7,playing a crucial intermediary role in the development of causation pathways."Failure to adopt a safe speed"and"inadequate use of navigational aids"exhibit a highly correlated relationship in grounding accidents,with a mutual inducement probability of 70%when interacting with other factors.Unsafe actions such as"failure to detect and implement effective risk mitigation measures in a timely manner"and"poor emergency re-sponse capabilities of the captain"frequently emerge in the association rules across multiple accident types.It indi-cates that these unsafe actions occupy a pivotal position in the process of seafarers'risk management.关键词
水上交通事故/船员不安全行为/致因分析/关联规则/复杂网络Key words
waterborne traffic accident/seafarers'unsafe actions/causation analysis/association rule mining/com-plex network分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
马晓雪,张瑞文,乔卫亮,韩冰,杨杰..基于关联规则挖掘的船员不安全行为致因网络分析[J].交通信息与安全,2025,43(2):1-10,10.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费项目(3132024627)资助 （3132024627）
