交通信息与安全2025，Vol.43Issue(2)：11-18,35,9.DOI:10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2025.02.002
基于盛行交通流的终端空域运行风险评估方法
Operational Risk Assessment of Terminal Airspace with Prevailing Traffic Flow
摘要
Abstract
The characterization and assessment of operational risks represent critical steps in enhancing airspace op-erational safety and management capabilities,particularly in structurally complex terminal airspaces with multiple intersecting arrival and departure flows.Traditional collision risk models predominantly focus on preemptive sin-gle-aircraft conflict detection and fixed-routes,exhibiting limitations in characterizing terminal airspace operational structures and analyzing post-conflict risks.This study develops a methodology that extracts prevalent traffic flows from historical trajectory data through clustering,which identifies geometric configurations of conflict scenarios and incorporating aircraft maneuvering adjustments.By analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution in risk-prone ar-eas,an assessment metric defined as the expected collision frequency per unit time was constructed to quantify the operational risk.Cumulative aggregation across diverse temporal and spatial scales enables risk quantification and hotspot identification,thereby facilitating operational evaluations,early warnings for high-risk traffic flows and spa-tiotemporal hotspots,and providing guidance for air traffic control,tactical planning,and airspace construction.A case study of Guangzhou Baiyun Airport validates the model's effectiveness in risk characterization and hotspot de-tection,Key findings include:Conflict risks between arrival flows constitute the primary risk category;The depar-ture flow of VIBOS requires attention under northbound operation;Temporal risk hotspots are concentrated between 13:00-14:00 and 22:00-02:00.关键词
交通安全/碰撞风险/终端空域/盛行交通流/航迹聚类Key words
traffic safety/collision risk/terminal airspace/prevailing traffic flow/trajectory clustering分类
航空航天引用本文复制引用
支婧文,张军峰,马曌..基于盛行交通流的终端空域运行风险评估方法[J].交通信息与安全,2025,43(2):11-18,35,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52372315)、南京航空航天大学研究生科研与实践创新项目(xcxjh20230734)资助 （52372315）
