交通信息与安全2025，Vol.43Issue(2)：28-35,8.DOI:10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2025.02.004
基于D-S证据理论的地铁站安全风险评估方法
A Method of Risk Assessment for Subway Stations Based on D-S Evidence Theory
摘要
Abstract
The safety risk assessment of high-density passenger flow holds significant importance for improving the emergency response capabilities of urban metro systems.To address t traditional methods'limitations,such as inad-equate indicator systems,insufficient integration of multi-source data,and low assessment accuracy,an enhanced Dempster-Shafer(D-S)evidence theory method was proposed.This method is structured around a five-dimensional indicator system encompassing personnel,equipment,passenger flow,environmental conditions,and management protocols.Comprehensive weights were determined through Game Theory-Combinatorial Empowerment.The safety level membership degrees of each indicator were quantified using a fuzzy half-gradient affiliation function,while an evidence similarity matrix is constructed via Jousselme's evidential distance function.To address high-conflict evi-dence,a calibration factor α,and adjustment parameter μ,are introduced to refine the fusion process,where the final risk level derived through a linear weighted method.A case study was conducted at Ningbo Metro Gulou Station,utilizing holiday evening peak passenger flow data and expert evaluations to establish a multi-source evidence set for validation.The results demonstrated that:①Compared to the traditional D-S method and Yager's method,the proposed approach reduces average evidence conflicts by 34.4%and 8.5%,respectively;②The membership grade of the critical"passenger flow"indicator has an R3 rank value reaches 0.8202,confirming the method's effective-ness in characterizing scenarios of high-density passenger flow;③The proposed method exhibits robust adaptability and stability,with an error rate below 5%in the comparison of multiple scenarios.These findings provided action-able insights for identifying and mitigating risks in metro systems under high-density passenger flow conditions.关键词
交通工程/地铁站/安全风险评估/D-S证据理论/客流量Key words
traffic engineering/subway station/security risk assessment/D-S evidence theory/passenger flow分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
董升,马云洁,周继彪,杜运潮,李泽炜..基于D-S证据理论的地铁站安全风险评估方法[J].交通信息与安全,2025,43(2):28-35,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52002282)、浙江省教育科学规划课题项目(2023SCG131)、宁波市自然科学基金项目(2023J028)资助 （52002282）
