南方电网技术2025，Vol.19Issue(8)：83-93,11.DOI:10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2025.08.009
基于随机生产模拟的电力行业碳减排分析模型
Carbon Emission Reduction Analysis Model for Power Industry Based on Stochastic Production Simulation
摘要
Abstract
Thoroughly studying the emission reduction responsibilities,potential,and pathways of the power industry is an important reference for promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of energy,as well as a key support for achieving the goal of peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality for the whole society.The analysis of carbon emission reduction in the power industry needs to consider external factors such as economy,society,resources,and environment,as well as the constraints of power system opera-tion such as electricity balance and unit output limitations.It is a complex nonlinear problem with multiple objectives,constraints,and parameters.Firstly,factors such as economic growth,industrial restructuring,and energy substitution are analyzed.The variables included electricity load,installed capacity of various power sources,energy storage capacity,carbon capture scale,and cross regional power transmission capacity.The objective function is the transformation cost of the power industry,and the constraints include electricity balance,carbon emissions,new energy utilization,hydrogen production demand,and the development of low-carbon,zero carbon,and negative carbon key technologies.A carbon reduction analysis model for the power industry is constructed,and an OpenMP multi-core parallel particle swarm optimization algorithm and a dual layer solution algorithm for multi solution tasks are proposed.Finally,based on the constructed model and algorithm,calculations and analyses are conducted on the long-term power structure,electricity balance,new energy consumption,energy storage configuration,etc.,and a path for achieving carbon neutrality in China's power industry is proposed.关键词
碳达峰碳中和/碳减排分析模型/随机生产模拟/双层优化Key words
carbon peak and carbon neutrality/carbon emission reduction analysis model/stochastic production simulation/bi-level optimization分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
谢典,高亚静,芦新波,刘天阳,赵良,黄海威,赵勇..基于随机生产模拟的电力行业碳减排分析模型[J].南方电网技术,2025,19(8):83-93,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目"柔性直流海上换流平台轻型化关键技术研究"(2021YFB2400600) （2021YFB2400600）
国家自然科学基金面上项目"双碳目标下发电企业低碳技术创新扩散及其产业链协同"(72272050) （72272050）
中国工程院战略研究与咨询品牌项目"我国碳达峰碳中和若干重大问题研究"(2022-PP-01).Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2021YFB2400600) （2022-PP-01）
the National Natural Science Foundation General Program of China(72272050) （72272050）
the Strategic Research and Consulting Brand Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering(2022-PP-01). （2022-PP-01）
