南水北调与水利科技（中英文）2025，Vol.23Issue(4)：794-805,12.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2025.0081
黄河流域水-能源-粮食系统安全风险评价
Evaluating the risk of Water-Energy-Food system security in the Yellow River basin
摘要
Abstract
In the context of population growth and economic development,risks to water,energy,and food systems have become more pronounced.The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)proposed by the United Nations in 2015 highlight the interconnection among water,energy,and food.Therefore,clarifying the interlinked mutual feedback mechanisms among water,energy,and food in the Water-Energy-Food(WEF)system is crucial for sustainable regional development.The Yellow River basin,a key grain-producing area and energy production base in China,suffers from water scarcity and high consumption of energy and food.This basin supports 12％of the national population and produces 11％of the national food output while utilizing only 2％of the national runoff.Additionally,coal production in the region accounts for more than 60％of the national output.These resource endowments and the development situation of the Yellow River basin make it a typical area where contradictions among water,energy,food,and ecosystems are prominent and concentrated.Therefore,it is essential to scientifically evaluate the changes in the security level of the WEF system in the Yellow River basin and analyze the obstacles affecting its development and regional growth. An evaluation index system of the WEF system was constructed to comprehensively assess the safety level from 2000 to 2022.The multidimensional joint risk probability of the coupled safety of the WEF system was calculated using the Copula function,and the main obstacle factors hindering the development of safety levels in the Yellow River basin were analyzed. The results indicated that the WEF security assessment index of the Yellow River basin showed an increase in security level.The safety evaluation index demonstrated an upward trend,with fluctuations ranging from 0.227 to 0.701.Among these,the coordinated safety level index fluctuated the least,ranging from 0.118 to 0.797.The resilient safety level index experienced the most fluctuations,ranging from 0.129 to 0.846.During recent years,obstacle factors in the Yellow River basin included reservoir regulation capacity,the proportion of clean energy production,effective irrigation rate,energy consumption of groundwater intake,and water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP.The calculations using the Copula function showed that resilience was a key factor influencing the security level of the water-energy-food system in the Yellow River basin.The probability of WEF insecurity ranked as follows:the upper reaches,followed by the upper reaches of the Yellow River from Lanzhou to Toudaoguai,the lower reaches of the Yellow River,the middle reaches of the Yellow River,and finally,the Yellow River above Lanzhou. In summary,resilience was the key to achieving sustainable development in the Yellow River basin.In the future,the upper reaches of the Yellow River should develop water-saving irrigation technology and water conservancy facility construction;the middle reaches of the Yellow River should improve the utilization efficiency of fossil energy production and optimize the industrial structure;while the lower reaches of the Yellow River should adopt water-saving irrigation measures,enhance the construction of disaster prevention facilities,and integrate and coordinate the regional utilization of water resources,food and energy production.关键词
水-能源-粮食系统/共生关系/黄河流域/Copula函数/风险概率Key words
Water-Energy-Food system/symbiosis nexus/the Yellow River basin/Copula function/risk probability分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
朱一丁,郭英,齐永青,申一林,郭媛媛,沈彦俊..黄河流域水-能源-粮食系统安全风险评价[J].南水北调与水利科技（中英文）,2025,23(4):794-805,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金专项项目(42041007) （42041007）
