南水北调与水利科技（中英文）2025，Vol.23Issue(4)：806-819,14.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2025.0082
变化环境下洮儿河下游地下水位变化趋势
Variation trend of the groundwater level in the lower reach of Tao'er River under changing conditions
摘要
Abstract
Under the combined effects of human activities and climate change,arid and semi-arid regions face serious challenges,such as ongoing groundwater level declines.Investigating the temporal and spatial variations of groundwater levels under changing conditions is crucial for water resource management within a basin.For seasonal rivers where surface water and groundwater are weakly connected or even disconnected,few studies have employed integrated surface water and groundwater models to explore groundwater level changes influenced by climate change and human actions. Taking the Tao'er River basin as the study area,an integrated SWAT-MODFLOW model was developed.The model was calibrated and validated using observed streamflow and groundwater level data.Fifteen climate change scenarios and three groundwater pumping scenarios were designed.Future meteorological data were spatially interpolated and bias-corrected using the inverse distance weighting method and quantile mapping,respectively.The model predicted groundwater level trends under various scenarios. Results indicated that future climate in the Tao'er River basin is projected to become warmer and more humid.Under different climate scenarios,annual average precipitation is expected to increase by 18％to 30％,while maximum and minimum temperatures are forecasted to rise by 2 ℃ to 4℃.Under high-intensity groundwater pumping,the central and western areas would experience continuous groundwater declines in the SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585 scenarios,with the maximum decline reaching 6.79 m in the central region by 2060.In other regions,groundwater levels might rise due to enhanced recharge from increased precipitation,especially in the south,where levels could increase by up to 5.51 m by 2060.With moderate and low pumping levels,the basin's average groundwater level could rise by 1.16 to 2.94 m by 2060 in the same scenarios.A 50％reduction in pumping could reconnect some river segments with groundwater,but this would take at least 10 to 20 years.Management of groundwater resources in the lower Tao'er River basin remains challenging,and if current pumping practices continue,groundwater levels are unlikely to recover,and rivers could remain disconnected. Groundwater level recovery in the lower Tao'er River basin is a long and complex process,requiring the establishment of sustainable water management mechanisms and comprehensive,meticulous regulation.Firstly,it is essential to build a robust groundwater monitoring network to promptly capture dynamic variations,providing immediate and accurate data to inform decisions.Management policies should be regularly assessed and adjusted based on monitoring results to ensure they adapt flexibly to changing water conditions and demands,promoting sustainable groundwater use and protection.Secondly,in the irrigation districts of the lower Tao'er River,where groundwater pumping is high,water-saving technologies should be actively promoted to reduce demand and achieve conservation goals.Furthermore,strict groundwater exploitation restrictions should be enforced,and strategies for replacing groundwater with surface water used should be explored to reduce dependence on groundwater.These combined measures will support the sustainable management and protection of groundwater resources.关键词
变化环境/耦合模拟/地下水位/变化趋势/洮儿河流域Key words
changing conditions/coupling simulation/groundwater level/variation trend/Tao'er River basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王明君,彭勇,徐博,李昱..变化环境下洮儿河下游地下水位变化趋势[J].南水北调与水利科技（中英文）,2025,23(4):806-819,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202803) （2022YFC3202803）
国家自然科学基金项目(52479002) （52479002）
