南水北调与水利科技（中英文）2025，Vol.23Issue(4)：830-838,9.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2025.0084
山东省水环境承载力时空演化规律及驱动因素
Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of water environmental carrying capacity in Shandong Province
摘要
Abstract
Water environmental carrying capacity is a vital measure for evaluating the balance between social-economic development and water resources.It combines water resource supply,pollutant absorption capacity,and ecological service provision,all of which are crucial for regional sustainable growth.Shandong Province,located along China's eastern coast,is a key area for water resource management due to its dense population,industrial development,and diverse agriculture.However,the Province faces major challenges in water distribution and pollution,making a comprehensive assessment of water environment carrying capacity essential for guiding effective management strategies. A systematic evaluation framework for water environmental carrying capacity in Shandong was established,considering the magnitude,status,and potential of the capacity.To ensure objective and thorough assessment,the entropy weight and CRITIC methods were used to determine the importance of various evaluation indicators.The analysis covered from 2017 to 2021,examining spatial and temporal changes in water environment capacity across different cities.Additionally,the study investigated key factors influencing these changes by incorporating data from statistical yearbooks,environmental monitoring and remote sensing imagery. Overall,the water environment carrying potential in Shandong showed a trend consistent with the changes in capacity size and status from 2017 to 2021,with relatively small fluctuations and a slow upward trend.Spatially,coastal cities had slightly weaker water environmental capacity than inland cities in terms of size,status,and potential.In the evaluation system,water resource quality and pollution levels have become key factors influencing the capacity in recent years.Notably,the negative impact of water pollution on capacity is gradually decreasing,while the influence of economic and social development factors is becoming more prominent.Given its relatively abundant water resources,protecting the water environment is crucial,especially by strengthening supervision and conservation of water sources,rivers,lakes,and other waters in southeastern Shandong.In the agricultural hub in northwest Shandong,increasing water supply and enhancing water use efficiency are urgent priorities.Simultaneously,promoting agricultural modernization and improving planting technology are essential to reduce agricultural non-point source pollution.In the more stable central region,advancing industrial restructuring and accelerating the transformation of traditional industries are common trends.For coastal areas with higher economic development,balancing ecological preservation with regional economic cooperation requires comprehensive planning and management of water resources,emphasizing ecological sustainability and regional economic connections.关键词
水环境承载力/指标体系/熵权法/CRITIC法Key words
water environment carrying capacity/index system/entropy weight method/CRITIC method分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李爱华,李艺,吕铃钥,李鹏飞,张鸽,薛家聪,姚逸斐..山东省水环境承载力时空演化规律及驱动因素[J].南水北调与水利科技（中英文）,2025,23(4):830-838,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52470214) （52470214）
