情报杂志2025，Vol.44Issue(9)：60-71,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2025.09.008
基于生态位构建理论的中美人工智能技术非对称竞争分析
An Analysis of Asymmetric Competition in China-US Artificial Intelligence Technology Based on Niche Construction Theory
摘要
Abstract
[Research purpose]Against the backdrop of generational transitions in artificial intelligence(AI)technology,this study uses DeepSeek's niche breakthrough as a case to decode the characteristics of"ecological hegemony"and"asymmetric competition"in Sino-US AI rivalry.It constructs a multi-theoretical dynamic analytical framework to inform China's strategic positioning in asymmetric AI niche competition.[Research method]Grounded in niche construction theory,the research employs the entropy weight method to quanti-fy static-dynamic potential gaps between China and the US,generating a comprehensive evaluation score table.A dynamic feedback mod-el integrated with 500,000 Monte Carlo simulations forecasts the 20-year development trajectory of AI indices.[Research result/conclu-sion]Entropy weight analysis reveals China trails the US slightly in static potential(0.4327 vs.0.5678)but leads in dynamic develop-ment potential(0.5307 vs.0.4692).Monte Carlo simulations project a 66.4％probability of China's AI index overtaking the US around 2043,with confidence intervals narrowing from[52.7％,69.1％]in 2043 to[71.3％,80.5％]in 2044-indicating stable overtaking trends despite high variance.These findings highlight actionable pathways for leveraging asymmetric advantages in global AI ecosystem construction.关键词
人工智能/中美非对称竞争/生态位构建理论/熵权法/蒙特卡罗模拟/DeepSeekKey words
artificial intelligence(AI)/China-US asymmetric competition/niche construction theory/entropy weight method for quanti-fication/Monte Carlo simulation/DeepSeek分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
林鑫,马海群..基于生态位构建理论的中美人工智能技术非对称竞争分析[J].情报杂志,2025,44(9):60-71,12.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目"总体国家安全观下的国家情报工作制度创新研究"(编号:20ATQ004)研究成果. （编号:20ATQ004）
