南水北调与水利科技（中英文）2025，Vol.23Issue(4)：839-848,10.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2025.0085
基于PSR-Markov模型的水-经济社会协调发展时空演变
Spatiotemporal evolution of the coordinated development of water resources and socio-economic economy in Hebei Province based on PSR-Markov model
摘要
Abstract
The scarcity of natural water resources in Hebei Province has become a critical constraint on its socio-economic development.Therefore,understanding the evolution of the coordinated development between water resources and socio-economic systems is essential for achieving sustainable growth.Addressing this challenge requires an in-depth examination of the interplay between water resource management and socioeconomic progress to inform effective strategies.This study integrates the"pressure-state-response"(PSR)model with the Markov model,incorporating both positive and negative effects from neighboring regions.An evaluation model was developed to assess the coordinated development of water resources and socio-economic systems in Hebei Province.The analysis examines the degree of coordination and neighborhood effects at both provincial and prefectural levels,revealing spatiotemporal patterns in their evolution.The findings indicate notable temporal and spatial dynamics.Temporally,the overall and internal coordination levels of Hebei Province's PSR system have shown a steady rise since 2019,reaching their peak in 2021.While the development outlook is promising,significant transitions across coordination levels in the short term are unlikely.Spatially,the degree of coordination is higher in the central and southern regions and lower in the northern regions.Highly coordinated areas are concentrated in economically advanced cities such as Tangshan and Shijiazhuang.The coordination of neighboring towns has a significant influence on the surrounding areas.Medium-and low-level coordination regions display a"proximity effect",where adjacent areas tend to converge in development levels;this effect is less pronounced in high-recordination regions.This study provides insights into the spatiotemporal evolution of the coordinated development of water resources and socio-economic systems in Hebei Province.The results highlight the significance of neighborhood effects in shaping regional development patterns and provide a framework for achieving high-quality development amid water resource scarcity constraints.The proposed framework and findings can serve as a technical foundation for sustainable development planning in Hebei and similar contexts regions.关键词
水资源与经济社会协调发展/时空演变/PSR模型/Markov模型/河北省Key words
coordinated development of water resources and social economy/spatiotemporal evolution/PSR model/Markov model/Hebei Province分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
袁昕恬,王婷,刘彬,沙金霞,游进军,王文睿..基于PSR-Markov模型的水-经济社会协调发展时空演变[J].南水北调与水利科技（中英文）,2025,23(4):839-848,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(52209042) （52209042）
国家自然科学基金面上基金项目(52079143) （52079143）
河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(CXY2024037) （CXY2024037）
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3209400) （2023YFC3209400）
河北省重点研发计划项目(21374201D) （21374201D）
