水力发电学报2025，Vol.44Issue(9)：1-14,14.DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20250901
考虑源荷不确定性的日前市场出清价格区间预测模型
Day-ahead market clearing price interval prediction model considering electrical source-load uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
To improve the accuracy of clearing price estimation in electricity markets with multiple power sources under source-load uncertainty,this paper presents a day-ahead market clearing price interval prediction model.This model considers the uncertainty of generation-side outputs characterized by multidimensional stochastic distributions and the impact of load-side demand response,aimed at minimizing the total generation cost with the participation of hydropower,thermal,wind,and solar power,based on the physical clearing mechanism of electricity markets and the IEEE 30-bus power system.Its solutions give predictions of the interval of locational marginal price and generation commitments,taking source-load uncertainty into account.Case studies show its improvement on bidding efficiency and generation revenue;compared with traditional point forecasting methods,our new model achieves a 4.09%increase in overall economic efficiency and a 0.47%increase in expected revenue.The results verify its feasibility and effectiveness,and provide reliable decision-making support for generators in formulating stepwise bidding and output strategies in the day-ahead market.关键词
源荷不确定性/日前市场/出清价格/区间预测模型/IEEE30节点电力系统Key words
source-load uncertainty/day-ahead market/clearing price/interval prediction model/IEEE 30-node power system分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王远坤,葛亚东,张验科,卢垚键,孟长青..考虑源荷不确定性的日前市场出清价格区间预测模型[J].水力发电学报,2025,44(9):1-14,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52279064 （）
52579010) （）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2024JC003) （2024JC003）
