水生态学杂志2025，Vol.46Issue(5)：90-100,11.DOI:10.15928/j.1674-3075.202309250264
变化环境下大沽河流域汛期径流变化特性研究
Variation of Flood Season Runoff in Dagu River Basin in a Changing Environment
摘要
Abstract
Climate change and human activities have altered the hydrology of river basins,leading to new patterns of river runoff.Dagu River is the largest river on Jiaodong Peninsula and hydrological chang-es have impacted the livelihoods of both urban and rural residents.Daily runoff data(1962-2022)and me-teorological records from Nancun Hydrological Station were analyzed using Pettitt's test,the cumulative anomaly method,and the Bernaola-Galavan(B-G)segmentation algorithm to identify step changes in hy-drologic regime during flood season runoff.Then the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration/Range of Vari-ability(IHA/RVA)framework was applied to assess the degree of hydrological alteration before and after the hydrologic regime.The contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff variation were quantified using the Budyko-based hydrothermal coupling equilibrium equation.Finally,using the SWAT model,the net flow was compared between scenarios with and without reservoirs to analyze the impact of reservoir regulation on flood season runoff.Results show that a step change in flood season runoff in the Dagu River basin occurred around 1976,and the runoff series was divided into two periods:pre hydrolog-ic regime(1962-1975)and post hydrologic regime(1976-2022).There was a moderate change in flood season runoff during the 1970s and 1980s,with an overall hydrological alteration degree of 61.17％.Flood season runoff in the Dagu River was most sensitive to precipitation,followed by evapotranspiration and altered surface conditions.Human activities(changes in surface conditions)played a major role in the reduction of runoff in flood season,contributing more than 70％and primarily attributed to construction of reservoirs and sluice gates upstream of Nancun Hydrological Station that profoundly altered the basin's underlying surface conditions and subsequently altered the hydrological regime.The contribution of cli-mate change was less than 30％.After reservoir regulation,the flood season runoff significantly de-creased,particularly in July and August,with reductions of approximately 23.33％and 30.50％,respec-tively.关键词
径流变化/IHA-RVA法/Budyko假设/归因分析/SWAT模型/大沽河流域Key words
runoff changes/IHA-RVA method/Budyko hypothesis/attribution analysis/SWAT model/Dagu River basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
杨富香,拾兵,李松..变化环境下大沽河流域汛期径流变化特性研究[J].水生态学杂志,2025,46(5):90-100,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点支持项目(U2006227). （U2006227）
