情报杂志2025，Vol.44Issue(10)：73-85,13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2025.10.010
以大概率思维应对小概率事件:认知域风险演化与防范
Dealing with Low-Probability Events with a High-Probability Mindset:The Evolution and Prevention of Cognitive Domain Risks
摘要
Abstract
[Research purpose]In the context of intelligent cognitive warfare,the cognitive domain has become a key battlefield in mod-em complex conflicts and strategic games.Its risk evolution exhibits a highly dynamic and complex nature.Dynamically assessing this e-volution to enhance the precision of risk analysis and improve the capacity to respond to cognitive domain risks remains a significant chal-lenge.[Research method]Employing the principle of"addressing low-probability events with high-probability thinking,"this study ana-lyzes the impact of relevant technologies,mechanisms,and regulations on the cognitive domain within the intelligent cognitive warfare par-adigm.A dual-layer SEIR model is constructed to dynamically analyze the evolutionary paths and trends of cognitive domain risks from both emotional-layer and information-layer perspectives.System dynamics is ultimately utilized to simulate the evolution of these risks.[Research result/conclusion]The findings indicate that cognitive domain risk is primarily driven by information-layer risks in its early stages,while emotional-layer risks play a decisive role in risk propagation during later stages.Furthermore,under two low-probability e-vent scenarios-repetitive dissemination of disinformation and the confrontation of extreme emotions-significant differences are observed in risk peak values,ascent speeds,and decline characteristics.Sensitivity analysis identifies key driving factors,based on which targeted governance strategies are proposed.Consequently,this research provides a theoretical basis for constructing an efficient cognitive security defense system and offers precise,phased risk intervention strategies for countering foreign cognitive infiltration and attacks.关键词
认知域/双层SEIR模型/智能认知战/风险演化/系统动力学Key words
cognitive domain/dual-layer SEIR model/intelligent cognitive warfare/risk evolution/system dynamics分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
景慎佳,夏一雪,张立红,刘阳,邹仪,兰月新..以大概率思维应对小概率事件:认知域风险演化与防范[J].情报杂志,2025,44(10):73-85,13.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"认知战条件下舆论生态风险建模与防范机制研究"(编号:24BXW059)研究成果. （编号:24BXW059）
