水利学报2025，Vol.56Issue(8)：1002-1011,10.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20250026
考虑长江上游水库群调蓄影响的寸滩站设计洪水计算分析
Analysis of design flood estimation at Cuntan station considering regulation impact of upstream reservoir groups on the Yangtze River
摘要
Abstract
Based on the flow data series from 1892 to 2022 and the investigated historical flood events of Cuntan Hydrological Station,which controls the inflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir,the time-varying P-Ⅲ curve fitting method,as well as the most likely and the most unfavorable flood regional composition methods,were employed to estimate design floods considering the regulation impacts of upstream cascade reservoirs.The design flood hydro-graphs were derived and compared with the original design values.The results show that:(1)The time-varying P-Ⅲmodel with the modified reservoir index as the covariate can capture the non-stationary decreasing trend of the annual maximum flood series;(2)The most likely and the most unfavorable flood regional composition methods based on the Vine copula can effectively estimate design floods;(3)The regulation of upstream cascade reservoirs significantly reduces the design flood at the Cuntan Station.Compared with the original design values,the 1000-year design peak discharge and 7-day flood volume estimated by these three methods are reduced by 34.5％and 28.8％on average,respectively.关键词
设计洪水/水库调蓄/非一致性/洪水地区组成法/寸滩水文站Key words
design flood/reservoir regulation/non-stationarity/flood regional composition/Cuntan hydrological station分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
孙博凯,郭生练,钟斯睿,徐长江,熊丰,梁志明..考虑长江上游水库群调蓄影响的寸滩站设计洪水计算分析[J].水利学报,2025,56(8):1002-1011,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金长江联合基金项目(U2340205) （U2340205）
