人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(9)：84-94,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.09.009
海河流域极端降水时空演变特征及未来趋势分析
Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Extreme Precipitation in Haihe River Basin and Analysis of Future Trends
摘要
Abstract
Revealing the spatial and temporal changes of extreme precipitation events is of great significance for the protection of water resources,disaster prevention and mitigation,and responses to climate change in the Haihe River Basin.In this paper,based on CN05.1 grid-point precipitation data and data from nine climate models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),this paper studied the characteristics of extreme precipitation changes in the Haihe River Basin under different past and future scenarios by using Delta downscaling,Sen's slope method,and Mann-Kendall trend test.The results indicate that:①The data simulation effect after Delta deviation correction is relatively good and is suitable for the prediction of extreme precipitation.② In the historical period(1980-2014),in terms of temporal changes,the total annual precipitation,the number of days with precipitation exceeding 10 mm,and the maximum five-day precipitation show a significant upward trend,and other indicators increase but do not reach a significant level;in terms of spatial changes,the extreme precipitation index generally shows the pattern of"low in the northwest and high in the southeast".③ In the future period(2021-2100),the extreme precipitation index will generally show a strengthening trend in terms of temporal changes.In terms of spatial changes,compared with historical periods,the area where the rate of change of the extreme precipitation index increases under the high-emission scenario has significantly expanded.④On a seasonal scale,the growth trends of the maximum one-day precipitation and the maximum five-day precipitation have significantly strengthened in summer and autumn,a change that may lead to more severe heavy rainfall and flooding in summer and autumn.关键词
极端降水/时空特征/CMIP6/海河流域Key words
extreme precipitation/spatial and temporal characteristic/CMIP6/Haihe River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李佳,黄领梅,申奥,史荣情,申曼华,余小波..海河流域极端降水时空演变特征及未来趋势分析[J].人民珠江,2025,46(9):84-94,11.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2023YFC3006500) （2023YFC3006500）
