太阳能Issue(9)：13-19,7.DOI:10.19911/j.1003-0417.tyn20241006.01
海外光伏发电项目LCOE计算模型的应用分析
APPLICATION ANALYSIS OF LCOE CALCULATION MODEL FOR OVERSEAS PV POWER GENERATION PROJECTS
吕康 1梁音 1秦晓飞 1李文博 1章凯 1孙逸1
作者信息
- 1. 中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,西安 710065
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Due to differences in application scenarios and financial and tax policies,there are numerous versions of LCOE calculation models for overseas PV power generation projects.It is necessary to conduct systematic research to promote their standardized use and effective application.Based on this,this paper first introduces the definitions and calculation methods of five widely used LCOE calculation models at home and abroad.Then,combined with an overseas PV power generation project example,LCOE calculation and sensitivity analysis of LCOE to various influencing factors are carried out.Finally,the applicability of different LCOE calculation models in different application scenarios is studied,and relevant suggestions are proposed.The analysis results show that:1)The essence of the five calculation models is the ratio of all costs throughout the entire lifecycle of the power generation project to the discounted total amount of on grid electricity.The difference lies in the factors considered when calculating LCOE throughout the entire lifecycle.2)From the perspective of sensitivity analysis,the sensitivity curves of the influencing factors obtained from the five LCOE calculation models show consistent trends.The amount of on grid electricity has the greatest impact on LCOE,while the residual value rate has almost no effect on LCOE.On grid electricity is negatively correlated with LCOE,while initial investment,discount rate,and operation and maintenance fees are positively correlated with LCOE.3)When comparing schemes or making bidding decisions,it is recommended to first choose Fraunhofer ISE's LCOE calculation model or IRENA's LCOE calculation model.When making investment decisions,it is recommended to first use the LCOE calculation model of NREL.When creating LCOE learning curve models or making macro predictions,it is recommended to first choose Fraunhofer ISE's LCOE calculation model or IRENA's LCOE calculation model.4)Due to differences in financial and tax policies among countries,it is not advisable to use the LCOE calculation model of the Chinese industry standard for LCOE calculation in overseas PV power generation projects.关键词
海外光伏发电项目/平准化度电成本计算模型/敏感性分析/应用场景Key words
overseas PV power generation projects/LCOE calculation models/sensitivity analysis/application scenarios分类
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吕康,梁音,秦晓飞,李文博,章凯,孙逸..海外光伏发电项目LCOE计算模型的应用分析[J].太阳能,2025,(9):13-19,7.
