西南林业大学学报2025，Vol.45Issue(7)：1-10,10.DOI:10.11929/j.swfu.202506008
中国森林资源变化动态与发展趋势推演研究
Study on the Evolving Changes and Development Trends of Forest Resources in China
摘要
Abstract
China's unique national conditions and site characteristics have shaped its distinctive forest status and forestry development model.Limited land available for afforestation,low forest growth potential,a domin-ance of young and middle-aged forests,and a scarcity of over-mature forests have become key bottlenecks hinder-ing the modernization and industrialization of China's forestry sector.This study innovatively proposes a macro-control theory for forest resources to break through the limitations of precision forest management.It reveals the interaction mechanisms and correlation effects among 6 structural variables critical to forestry development:affor-estation volume,stock volume,growth volume,harvesting volume,and consumption volume.The study intro-duces an age-based method and an improved SEIR-F model to simulate the evolution trajectories of forest re-sources under different policy scenarios.It quantitatively explores the relationships between new afforestation rate,harvesting rate,and existing forest retention rate,and proposes an ideal annual harvesting rate.The results show that in the future,the annual net increase of forest area in China will be approximately 1.7 million hm2,and the forest coverage rate will increase by about 0.18％annually.China will fully enter the period of forest manage-ment to improve forestry quality.It is estimated that around 2050,the maximum ecological carrying capacity cov-erage rate of 29.59％will be achieved,and China will enter the period of sustainable and high-quality develop-ment of forestry.Each year,1.8467 million hm2 of forests will be harvested and reforested on the logged-over areas,accounting for 0.65％of the forest area.Meanwhile,precise forest management plans will be implemented in 99.35％(282 million hm2)of the forests.After 2050,the forest area will be about 287 million hm2,with a stock volume of 23.16 billion m3.The annual growth volume will reach 2.04 billion m3,and the annual timber harvest will be 362 million m3.Using the ideal annual harvest rate,a 63-year rotation cycle can achieve the dynamic bal-ance and sustainable renewal of forests,effectively curbing resource over-exploitation and structural imbalance.This study innovatively establishes a Chinese-style forest management theoretical system,which has important reference value for realizing the forestry ecological security pattern,comprehensively achieving self-sufficiency in timber,building a stable,efficient and sustainable ecosystem and a high-quality industrial system,and contrib-uting to the construction of a powerful forestry country.It also provides a scientific basis for the sustainable man-agement of forestry at the national,provincial and county levels.关键词
森林资源/SEIR-F模拟/采伐模型/可持续发展/覆盖率/蓄积量Key words
forest resource/SEIR-F simulation/harvesting model/sustainable development/forest coverage rate/forest stock volume分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
冯仲科,冯硕,吕天娇,冯博熙,王珊,段佳丽,李幻,罗陶然,贺明阳..中国森林资源变化动态与发展趋势推演研究[J].西南林业大学学报,2025,45(7):1-10,10.基金项目
北京林业大学5.5工程科研创新团队项目(BLRC2023A03)资助 （BLRC2023A03）
北京市自然科学基金项目(8232038,8234065)资助. （8232038,8234065）
