中国城市林业2025，Vol.23Issue(4)：12-23,12.DOI:10.12169/zgcsly.2025.02.22.0001
耦合GMMOP-PLUS模型的蓝绿空间多情景模拟预测
Multi-Scenario Simulation and Prediction of Blue-Green Space Based on Coupled GMMOP-PLUS Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]With a view to addressing the problems that the existing research on blue-green space focuses on the analysis of spatial and temporal changes of a single type of green or blue space and its influencing factors,and that the PLUS model lacks the optimal multi-objective solution to the land use pattern,we couple the GMMOP-PLUS model for multiple-scenarios simulation and prediction of blue-green space.It will provide a reference for the scientific and reasonable management of blue-green space and its pattern to realize the optimal land use and sustainable development mode.[Method]We take Zhangzhou,a typical coastal medium-sized city in Zhejiang-Fujian region,as the object,to set up four scenarios of natural development(ND),economic development(ED),ecological protection(EP)and sustainable development(SD)using PLUS model,ArcGIS 10.6,Lingo 18.0 and other software and based on the land use data in 2000,2010 and 2020.Then GMMOP-PLUS model is coupled to realize the multi-scenario simulation and prediction of blue-green space in Zhangzhou City in 2030.We compare economic value,ecological value and comprehensive value of the four scenarios.[Result]1)Land uses are dominated by blue-green space,with watershed and forest land as the main land uses,and cropland and grassland as the secondary land uses;2)From 2000 to 2020,the blue-green space continues to decrease as a result of its conversion to construction land.The main drivers of blue space change are annual mean temperature and DEM,and the main driver of green space change is NDVI;and 3)As the measurement of multi-scenario simulation and prediction for the year of 2030 in terms of economic value,ecological value and comprehensive value shows,SD scenario is relatively the optimal,which takes into account the economic benefits and ecological protection.[Conclusion]Land use in Zhangzhou City is dominated by blue-green space.The SD scenario can provide theoretical and practical references for the optimization and sustainable development of blue-green space.In the future,consideration should be given to adding natural factor indicators to the GMMOP model to construct a more comprehensive value quantification and trade-off system.关键词
土地利用/GMMOP模型/PLUS模型/蓝绿空间/多情景模拟预测/浙闽地区Key words
land use/GMMOP model/PLUS model/blue-green space/multi-scenario simulation and prediction/Zhejiang-Fujian region引用本文复制引用
卢俊涵,任维,曹睿祺,黄乐妍..耦合GMMOP-PLUS模型的蓝绿空间多情景模拟预测[J].中国城市林业,2025,23(4):12-23,12.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(20YJC760079) （20YJC760079）
2024年福建省本科高校教育教学研究重大项目(FBJY20240176) （FBJY20240176）
2024年度福建省教育科学规划常规课题(FJJKBK24-088) （FJJKBK24-088）
福建农林大学科技创新专项基金项目(社科类)(CXZX2022057,CXZX2023005) （社科类）
