中国城市林业2025，Vol.23Issue(4)：51-60,10.DOI:10.12169/zgcsly.2024.09.26.0001
基于MCCA模型的苏州市生态系统服务权衡协同时空特征与多情景模拟
Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Trade-off and Synergies Between Ecosystem Services in Suzhou Based on MCCA Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The study is to understand the spatiotemporal characteristics of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies at urban spaces in order to significantly enhance ecosystem service benefits.[Method]Using multi-source data including Landsat TM/ETM,DTM,and POP,and applying the Ecosystem Service Trade-off and Synergy Degree(ESTD)model,this study explores the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies in 1995-2020,and conducts multi-scenario simulations using the MCCA model.[Result]1)The total ecosystem service value(ESV)shows a"W"shaped trend.Only the regulating services have a continuously increasing value,and a spatial pattern of"high at the edges while low in the center"has shaped;2)Synergies dominate among service types,though their intensity gradually weakens.Spatially clustering characteristics distinctly presents.Strong relationship between trade-off and synergy is concentrated in the southeastern part of Suzhou and around Yangcheng Lake,while weak relationship between trade-off and synergy are concentrated in the urban center and water areas;and 3)Under the ecological development scenario in 2035,there are the highest increment of ESV and the largest number of synergistic relationships,while ESTD reaches its maximum value.Therefore,this scenario is the optimal development scenario of Suzhou.[Conclusion]In urban spaces,there is a need to restrain land use expansion,rationally delineate the boundary of urban development,strictly enforce farmland protection,and enhance ecological restoration so as to maximize the synergistic ecological,economic and agricultural development.关键词
生态系统服务价值/权衡协同/多情景模拟/MCCA模型/苏州市Key words
ecosystem service value/trade-off and synergy/multi-scenario simulation/MCCA model/Suzhou City引用本文复制引用
冯怡然,吴殿鸣..基于MCCA模型的苏州市生态系统服务权衡协同时空特征与多情景模拟[J].中国城市林业,2025,23(4):51-60,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51908392) （51908392）
