中国脑血管病杂志2025，Vol.22Issue(8)：524-536,13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-5921.2025.08.003
急性轻型缺血性卒中患者早期神经功能恶化及短期预后的影响因素分析
Analysis of the influencing factors of early neurological deterioration and short-term prognosis in minor acute ischemic stroke patients
摘要
Abstract
Objective To investigate the influencing factors associated with early neurological deterioration(END)in patients with minor acute ischemic stroke(mAIS),develop a clinical prediction model for END,and identify independent risk factors for 90-day neurological functional outcomes after stroke.Methods mAIS patients admitted consecutively to the Department of Neurology,Yijishan Hospital of Wannan Medical College(the First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College),from July 2023 to July 2024 were retrospectively collected.A minor ischemic stroke was defined as acute ischemic stroke with a National Institutes of Health stroke scale(NIHSS)score≤5 on admission.Baseline,clinical,and imaging data of all mAIS patients were collected and recorded,including demographic information(age,sex),past medical history(hypertension,diabetes mellitus,hyperlipidemia,coronary heart disease,atrial fibrillation),smoking history,alcohol consumption,baseline blood pressure,pre-onset modified Rankin scale(mRS),NIHSS scores at admission and during hospitalization(24 hours,48 hours,72 hours after admission),motor component subscore of the NIHSS scores,NIHSS scores at discharge,trial of Org 10172 in acute stroke treatment(TOAST)classification,laboratory indicators(fasting blood glucose,hemoglobin A1c[HbA1c],total cholesterol,triglycerides,high-density lipoprotein,low-density lipoprotein),clinical treatment information(intravenous thrombolysis,mono antiplatelet therapy,dual antiplatelet therapy,anticoagulation therapy)and length of stay.The status of stenosis and occlusion in the culprit vessel were assessed based on imaging results.Mild-to-moderate stenosis was defined as a stenosis rate of 0％to 69％,severe stenosis as a stenosis rate of 70％to 99％,and occlusion as complete interruption of the supplying artery.END was defined as an increase in NIHSS score of ≥2 points from baseline within 72 hours after admission,combined with an increase of at least 1 point in the motor score compared to the score at admission.Prognosis was assessed via telephone follow-ups at 90-day after onset using mRS score,with an mRS score ≤ 2 indicating a favorable outcome and an mRS score＞2 indicating a poor outcome.Variables with P＜0.05 in the univariate analysis were incorporated into multivariate Logistic regression analysis to identify the independent risk factors for END in mAIS patients.A nomogram model was constructed,and calibration curves along with decision curve analysis were plotted to evaluate the model's goodness-of-fit and clinical utility.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with poor 90-day functional outcome after mAIS.Results(1)A total of 826 patients were included,aged 33-94 years,with a median age of 67(57,76)years.There were 571 males and 255 females.The NIHSS score at admission ranged from 0 to 5,with a median NIHSS score at admission of 3(2,4).The NIHSS motor subscore at admission ranged from 0 to 5,with a median baseline NIHSS motor score of 2(0,2).Among them,119 patients(14.4％)were in the END group and 707 patients(85.6％)were included in the non-END group.At 90days after stroke,744 patients(90.1％)had a favorable outcome,while 82 patients(9.9％)had a poor outcome.(2)Univariate analysis showed that there were statistically significant differences between the END group and the non-END group in terms of HbA1c,fasting blood glucose,baseline NIHSS score,baseline NIHSS motor subscore,history of alcohol consumption,diabetes mellitus,culprit vessel stenosis and occlusion,and TOAST classification(all P＜0.05).Statistically significant differences were observed between the favorable outcome group and the poor outcome group in HbA1c,fasting blood glucose,incidence of END,baseline NIHSS score,discharge NIHSS score,culprit vessel stenosis and occlusion,TOAST classification,and history of alcohol consumption(all P＜0.05).(3)Multivariate Logistic regression analysis indicated that mAIS patients with severe stenosis of the culprit vessel(OR,5.88,95％CI2.32-14.91,P＜0.01),occlusion of the culprit vessel(OR,5.74,95％CI 2.25-14.62,P＜0.01),history of alcohol consumption(OR,5.59,95％CI3.41-9.17,P＜0.01),elevated HbA1c(OR,1.67,95％CI 1.35-2.08,P＜0.01),and higher baseline NIHSS motor score(OR,1.43,95％CI 1.08-1.89,P=0.012)had an increased risk of END.A higher discharge NIHSS score(OR,2.59,95％CI 1.89-3.57,P＜0.01)and the occurrence of END(OR,18.42,95％CI 5.13-66.18,P＜0.01)were associated with poor 90-day functional outcome after mAIS.(4)The nomogram model constructed based on independent risk factors of END in mAIS patients demonstrated an AUC of 0.78(95％CI 0.73-0.83)for predicting END,with a sensitivity of 0.8 and a specificity of 0.7.The model showed good calibration,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated good agreement between predicted and observed values(P=0.333).Decision curve analysis revealed that the model provided a high net benefit across a range of high-risk thresholds(0.1-0.7),suggesting its potential clinical utility.Conclusions Severe stenosis of the culprit vessel,occlusion of the culprit vessel,glycated hemoglobin levels,baseline NIHSS motor subscale scores,and history of alcohol consumption are independent risk factors for END in patients with mAIS.The nomogram model constructed based on these factors demonstrated good predictive performance.END and NIHSS scores at discharge are independent predictors of poor 90-day outcomes in patients with mAIS.关键词
急性轻型缺血性卒中/早期神经功能恶化/危险因素/列线图模型/预后Key words
Acute minor ischemic stroke/Early neurological deterioration/Risk factors/Nomogram model/Prognosis引用本文复制引用
储龙生,周志明,黄显军,王成磊,魏博豪,高越沛,李阿萌,杨科,徐骏峰,尚贤金..急性轻型缺血性卒中患者早期神经功能恶化及短期预后的影响因素分析[J].中国脑血管病杂志,2025,22(8):524-536,13.基金项目
皖南医学院重点项目科研基金(WK2024SZD06) （WK2024SZD06）
安徽省临床医学研究转化专项项目(202427b10020048) （202427b10020048）
合肥综合性国家科学中心大健康研究院先导医学与前沿技术研究所科研项目(2023IHM01053) （2023IHM01053）
