农业展望2025，Vol.21Issue(5)：30-36,7.
基于ARIMA模型的中国鸡肉价格预测分析
Analysis and Prediction of Chicken Prices in China Based on the ARIMA Model
摘要
Abstract
Globally,the production and consumption structure of meat is shifting from pork,beef,and mutton to poultry.As a major player in chicken consumption and production,China experiences significant price fluctuations in different periods,which to some extent hinders the orderly and healthy development of the country's broiler industry.To address the constraining effects of cyclical price volatility on industry stability,this study focused on China's chicken market prices,utilizing ARIMA model based on price data from 2015 to 2024 to forecast chicken prices from February 2025 to March 2026.The results showed that the ARIMA(2,1,2)model performs well in forecasting.From February to July 2025,China's chicken prices are projected to decline gradually;from August to December 2025,prices are expected to rebound;and from January to March 2026,prices will continue to rise.Based on these findings,the study proposed policy recommendations:establishing a digital monitoring and early-warning system for the entire industry chain,innovating a composite risk-hedging mechanism combining"insurance+futures,"and leveraging consumer expectation management to mitigate extreme market volatility.关键词
鸡肉价格/价格预测/ARIMA模型Key words
chicken price/price prediction/ARIMA model引用本文复制引用
孙晓彤,韩启政,肖红波..基于ARIMA模型的中国鸡肉价格预测分析[J].农业展望,2025,21(5):30-36,7.基金项目
现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资(CARS-41) （CARS-41）
