农业展望2025，Vol.21Issue(5)：37-45,9.
中国乳制品进口风险分析及对策
Analysis and Countermeasures of China's Dairy Import Risk
摘要
Abstract
The three characteristics of China's dairy products import pattern are:firstly,the domestic supply-demand gap has widened,and imports have become an important means to compensate for supply and demand;secondly,the import volume continues to rise,the dependence on imports increases,and the self-sufficiency rate continues to decline;thirdly,the import sources are highly concentrated,with the main import sources being New Zealand,the United States,Australia,and the European Union,accounting for over 90%of the total import volume.Based on the analysis of the import pattern of dairy products in China,this study analyzed the import risk from four dimensions:political risk,price fluctuation risk,transportation risk and dependency risk.The research results indicate that from the perspective of the supply chain,the import risk of dairy products in China mainly exists in the external acquisition stage,that is,the risk in the trade process.From the perspective of risk sources,the import risks of dairy products in China mainly come from the European Union and the United States,accounting for 80%of the overall risk.Among them,political risk and price fluctuation risk are the main reasons for the higher import risks in the European Union and the United States compared to New Zealand and Australia.From the perspective of import risk,from 2016 to 2020,the import risk of dairy products in China first increased and then decreased,mainly due to a decrease in import risks from the European Union and Australia.Based on the above research,this paper put forward three policy recommendations to satisfy the diverse consumption needs of domestic consumers and ensure the safety of domestic dairy product supply,enhancing the resilience of China's dairy supply:first,establish a dairy futures system;second,adhere to the"going global"strategy;third,improve the early warning and monitoring system for dairy import dependence risks.关键词
乳制品/进口风险/两阶段数据包络分析Key words
dairy/import risk/two-phase DEA-like model引用本文复制引用
顾静,林昱彤,程广燕..中国乳制品进口风险分析及对策[J].农业展望,2025,21(5):37-45,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划"牛奶品质对人体健康作用及全产业链技术协同"(2022YFD1301005) （2022YFD1301005）
