转化医学杂志2025，Vol.14Issue(9)：33-36,4.DOI:10.3639/j.issn.2095-3097.2025.09.007
老年高血压患者并发慢性肾脏病风险因素分析及列线图预测模型构建
Analysis of Risk Factors and Construction of A Nomogram Prediction Model for Concurrent Chronic Kidney Disease in Elderly Hypertensive Patients
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the risk factors for chronic kidney disease(CKD)in elderly hypertensive patients and construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods We selected 180 elderly hypertensive patients from The First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei North University between December 2021 and October 2023.Patients were divided into a CKD group(n=52)and a non-CKD group(n=128)based on the presence of CKD.Clinical data were collected for all subjects.Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze risk factors for CKD in elderly hypertensive patients.A nomogram prediction model was created using R language,and the predictive efficacy of the model was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.Results Univariate analysis showed that body mass index(BMI),duration of hypertension,diastolic blood pressure,white blood cell count,aspartate aminotransferase,glycosylated hemoglobin,serum creatinine,and serum uric acid levels were significantly higher in the CKD group than in the non-CKD group(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified BMI,duration of hypertension,diastolic blood pressure,blood creatinine,and blood uric acid as independent risk factors for CKD(P<0.05).The nomogram prediction model was constructed using the rms package in R.ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve for predicting CKD in elderly hypertensive patients using the nomogram model was 0.977(95%CI:0.950-0.998).Conclusion BMI,duration of hypertension,diastolic blood pressure,blood creatinine,and blood uric acid are risk factors for CKD in elderly hypertensive patients.The constructed nomogram prediction model demonstrates good predictive efficacy for CKD in this population.关键词
高血压/老年/慢性肾脏病/影响因素分析/列线图/预测Key words
hypertension/elderly/chronic kidney disease/influence factor analysis/nomogram/prediction引用本文复制引用
王景璐,丁维敏,蒋静,刘颖华,郭建英,张琦,宋雷雨..老年高血压患者并发慢性肾脏病风险因素分析及列线图预测模型构建[J].转化医学杂志,2025,14(9):33-36,4.基金项目
2025年度河北省医学科学研究课题计划项目(20250899) （20250899）
