中国中药杂志2025，Vol.50Issue(14)：3887-3897,11.DOI:10.19540/j.cnki.cjcmm.20250414.103
未来气候及土地利用变化背景下中国天麻潜在适生区评价
Evaluation of potential suitable habitats for Gastrodia elata in China under future climate and land use change scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Climate and land use changes may significantly impact the habitat distribution of Gastrodia elata,an endangered traditional medicinal plant.Accurately predicting its future potential suitable habitats is crucial for its conservation and sustainable development.This study integrates current distribution data of G.elata with 56 environmental variables and uses the MaxEnt model to predict changes in its suitable habitats under current climate conditions and four future climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).The results show that October precipitation and December minimum temperature are key environmental factors influencing its distribution.Under the current climate,optimal habitats for G.elata are concentrated in montane forest areas in Sichuan,Yunnan,Guizhou,and Hubei,which meet the species' requirements for understory growth.Across all future scenarios,the suitable habitat of G.elata consistently shows a stable northward shift,with a steady increase in suitable areas,extending to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huang-Huai region,and even expanding into Liaoning,Jilin,and southern Heilongjiang.Land use analysis,taking into account the protection of arable land and the utilization of forest resources,indicates that by 2100,under future climate conditions,arable land in medium-to high-suitability areas is expected to increase by 30％-124％.While the conversion of non-suitable forest land into suitable habitats is projected to increase by 5％-52％,the growth of medium-to high-suitability areas within forests is relatively modest,ranging from 1％to 24％.These findings highlight the need to balance agricultural expansion with forest resource conservation to ensure the long-term sustainability of G.elata and provide scientific guidance for future suitable habitat management.关键词
天麻/土地利用/气候变化/MaxEnt/生态适生区Key words
Gastrodia elata/land use/climate change/MaxEnt/ecological suitable area引用本文复制引用
龚华乾,郭旭东,席少阳,涂工涵,陈飞,晋玲..未来气候及土地利用变化背景下中国天麻潜在适生区评价[J].中国中药杂志,2025,50(14):3887-3897,11.基金项目
中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(GS2021ZDA06) （GS2021ZDA06）
道地药材生态种植及质量保障项目(国中医药科技[2020]153号) （国中医药科技[2020]153号）
财政部和农业农村部国家现代农业产业技术体系项目(CARS-21) （CARS-21）
甘肃省中医药管理局2024年中药保障与创新能力提升项目(甘中医药综函[2024]14号) （甘中医药综函[2024]14号）
甘肃省科技厅2023年甘肃中医药产业创新联合体项目(23ZDFA013-1) （23ZDFA013-1）
甘肃省科技计划课题特派团专项项目(23CXNA0042) （23CXNA0042）
2025年甘肃中医药大学研究生"创新创业基金"项目(2025CXCY-042) （2025CXCY-042）
