广东海洋大学学报2025，Vol.45Issue(4)：60-68,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-9159.2025.04.007
中国海灾害性海浪的历史特征多维度分析
Multi-dimensional Analysis on Historical Characteristics of Disastrous Waves in the Chinese Sea
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Addressing the issue that existing studies on disastrous sea wave characteristics in China often focus on single elements(e.g.,disastrous sea wave days,return period wave heights)using disparate data sources,hindering systematic conclusions,this study aims to establish a multi-dimensional analysis framework to systematically characterize the historical features of disastrous waves in the China Seas.[Methods]Based on 45 years of ERA-5 wave reanalysis data,the spatial distribution,interannual variability,and monthly characteristics of disastrous sea waves from the perspectives of occurrence frequency(disastrous sea wave days),maximum intensity(annual maximum significant wave height),and hazard level(hazard index,return period wave heights)were analyzed.[Results and Conclusion]① Spatial distribution:The central-northern South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait are high-frequency and high-hazard core zones.The East China Sea dominates extreme intensity(with a recorded maximum wave height of 18.3 m),while the Bohai Sea and Beibu Gulf exhibit the lowest risk.② Interannual variability:All indices show strong fluctuations.The annual range percentage for disaster days(annual mean 129 days),annual maximum wave height(annual mean 12.9 m),and the hazard index exceed 40%,72%,and 108%,respectively.③ Monthly characteristics&driving mechanisms:A"dual-driver"pattern emerged.Cold-air waves(winter half-year)dominate frequency and annual mean hazard,with the highest risk occurring in winter(with a peak in December).Typhoon waves(summer and autumn)dominate extreme intensity(significant wave height surges from July to October),which are the primary cause of record-breaking events.④ Prediction reliability:Seasonal differences exist in prediction reliability.Predictions are highly accurate in winter(with small discrepancies),but prediction error risk is high in late spring and early summer,especially in May.Through this multi-dimensional analysis,this study systematically reveals the historical patterns of disastrous waves in the China Seas and their core driving mechanisms.关键词
灾害性海浪/空间分布/年际变化/月度特征/中国海Key words
disastrous sea waves/spatial distribution/interannual variability/monthly characteristics/the Chinese Sea分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
曾崇济,王娟娟,吴萌萌,李本霞,南明军,马宏怡,张红波..中国海灾害性海浪的历史特征多维度分析[J].广东海洋大学学报,2025,45(4):60-68,9.基金项目
中国华能集团有限公司科技项目"海上综合环境要素高精度耦合预报研究"(HNKJ22-H132) （HNKJ22-H132）
国家重点研发计划重点专项(2021YFC3101605) （2021YFC3101605）
