广东海洋大学学报2025，Vol.45Issue(4)：77-84,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-9159.2025.04.009
粤港澳大湾区登陆台风特征演变及其危险性评估
Evolution of Landfall Typhoon Characteristics and Its Hazard Assessment in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
摘要
Abstract
[Obgective]This study aimed to reveal the characteristic patterns of typhoon landfall and entry into the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA),and assess its hazard to enhance scientific preparedness for typhoon disasters.[Method]Based on the data set of the best path of tropical cyclones of China Meteorological Administration(CMA),we statistically analyze the spatial and temporal changes of typhoons that made landfall in GBA during the period of 1949‒2022,and carry out a quantitative assessment of typhoon hazard for the provinces and cities in GBA through the typhoon transit frequency and typhoon weighted path length per unit area.[Result and Conclusion]108 typhoons have made landfall in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao over the past 74 years,the frequency of landfalls generally followed an upward trend initially,followed by a decline,peaking around 1970,and stabilized after 1990;the intensity of typhoons that made landfall in the region is dominated by tropical depressions and strong tropical storms,and stronger typhoons mainly concentrated in September.The high-frequency typhoon transit areas of the provinces and cities in the Greater Bay Area are mainly located in the western and northern peripheral cities,showing a"northeast-southwest"direction of distribution,of which Huizhou City has the highest frequency of typhoon transit.Typhoon high-risk areas are concentrated in the Shenzhen-Huizhou area on the east bank of the Pearl River Estuary and the Zhuhai-Jiangmen area on the west bank,while the northern and western inland cities of the Greater Bay Area are affected by the typhoon attenuation effect,and the hazard shows a gradient decreasing characteristic.A comparison of the typhoon hazard index in the Greater Bay Area and its relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)reveals that the typhoon hazard in the Greater Bay Area is higher during La Niña years.The typhoon risk in the Greater Bay Area exhibits significant spatial variation,with the Shenzhen-Huizhou area on the eastern shore of the Pearl River Estuary and the Zhuhai-Jiangmen region on the western shore constituting the primary high-risk zones.The findings provide important evidence for the formulation of differentiated typhoon disaster prevention strategies in the Greater Bay Area.关键词
台风/时空特征/危险性评估/台风强度/粤港澳大湾区Key words
typhoon/spatiotemporal characteristics/hazard assessment/typhoon intensity/Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area(GBA)分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郝如梦,周亮,闫粟,王依伊,郭瑾妍,黎晴,杨阳..粤港澳大湾区登陆台风特征演变及其危险性评估[J].广东海洋大学学报,2025,45(4):77-84,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41706096 （）
42276050) （）
