草业科学2025，Vol.42Issue(8)：1980-1991,12.DOI:10.11829/j.issn.1001-0629.2025-0156
基于MaxEnt模型的河西走廊中东段优势蝗虫的适生区分析
Habitat suitability analysis of dominant grasshopper species in the middle and eastern Hexi Corridor based on the MaxEnt model
摘要
Abstract
Gomphocerus licenti is the dominant grasshopper species on the mountain meadow steppe in Hexi Corridor.To determine the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of G.licenti,and predict its current suitable habitat areas and future distribution changes,60 major distribution sites of G.licenti were identified through field surveys,and suitable habitats distribution under the current and future climate was predicted using the MaxEnt model.The results showed that the average area under curve values of both the training and test sets for G.licenti were greater than 0.9.The contributions of climate,vegetation,topography,soil and human footprints to G.licenti were 43.4％,33.8％,18.3％,3.3％and 1.2％,respectively.Under the current climate,the highly suitable areas for G.licenti were mainly distributed in the central zone of Sunan County,the northern part of Ganzhou District,the southern part of Minle County,the eastern part of Shandan County,the southern part of Yongchang County,Huangcheng Town,and the western district of Tianzhu County.The highly suitable area distribution was 1.6 × 103 km2,which was 4.6％that of the total area.Under the SSP370 scenario in the 2030s,the increase in suitable areas for G.licenti was the largest with an increase of 3.3 × 103 km2;whereas,under SSP585,the increase in suitable area was the smallest with an increase of 2.8 × 103 km2.This fiunding indicated that NDVI was the main environmental factor influencing the distribution of G.licenti in the suitable area.In the 2030s,the distribution of G.licenti in the middle east section of Hexi Corridor will go under a significant increasing trend,which should prompt action and attention of relevant departments,and help in early warning and emergency prevention.关键词
河西走廊/草原蝗虫/李氏大足蝗/最大熵模型/气候变化/适生区/监测预警Key words
Hexi Corridor/grasshopper/Gomphocerus licenti/MaxEnt model/climate change/suitable habitat area/monitoring and early warning引用本文复制引用
甘辉林,李东红,马垭杰,王鹏,周惠丽,李晓鹏,胡桂馨..基于MaxEnt模型的河西走廊中东段优势蝗虫的适生区分析[J].草业科学,2025,42(8):1980-1991,12.基金项目
草原蝗虫、高原鼠兔调查监测关键技术研究项目(GSXS-23-CYJSTG-11) （GSXS-23-CYJSTG-11）
甘肃省草原有害生物普查成果汇总项目 （）
张掖市科技计划项目(ZY2024BJ32) （ZY2024BJ32）
