大气科学2025，Vol.49Issue(4)：1011-1019,9.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2506.25065
"暖北极—冷欧亚"模态的变化及其气候环境效应
Variations in the"Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia"Pattern and the Climate-Environment Effects
摘要
Abstract
The"warm Arctic-cold Eurasia"(WACE)pattern is one of the key modes of winter Arctic-Eurasia climate variability,exhibiting multi-timescale variation characteristics.The weakening of the"Arctic warming-Eurasia cooling"trend since 2012 has sparked intense discussion of whether the Arctic-Eurasia climate linkage has disappeared or weakened.Diagnostic analyses based on multi-source data indicate that the timescale of the close connection between the Arctic and Eurasian climates shifts from winter means to subseasonal variations,presenting an increasing and strengthening phase reversal of the WACE between early and late winter.The WACE pattern can lead to a weakened large-scale meridional temperature gradient,resulting in persistent and large-amplitude atmospheric circulation anomalies,which in turn trigger extreme cold waves.More importantly,the WACE reversal can drive extreme cold-warm transitions in the Mongolian region and eastern China.Because Mongolia is a major dust source for China,rapid wintertime phase-reversals lead to loose,bare ground surfaces,providing ample material and conducive conditions for severe sandstorms in North China.The physical variations in early and late winter can be more clearly understood by considering a WACE on the subseasonal scale.The occurrence of WACE in late winter also significantly impacts haze pollution in North China and is a key predictor of Arctic wildfires.Future research on the WACE pattern should focus on its trends and associated uncertainties,clarify the mechanisms underlying phase reversals,and enhance the efficacy of climate models for simulating and predicting these patterns,thereby improving the accuracy of predicting winter-spring extreme climates at mid-to-low latitudes.关键词
北极增暖/"暖北极—冷欧亚"/极端气候/复合环境灾害Key words
Arctic amplification/Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia/Extreme climate/Compound environmental disasters分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
尹志聪,张艺佳,许天宝.."暖北极—冷欧亚"模态的变化及其气候环境效应[J].大气科学,2025,49(4):1011-1019,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目42088101 National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 42088101) （Grant 42088101）
