大地测量与地球动力学2025，Vol.45Issue(9)：899-904,6.DOI:10.14075/j.jgg.2024.10.487
LS+Informer用于极移预报的方法研究
LS+Informer in Polar Motion Prediction
摘要
Abstract
In order to improve the medium and long term prediction accuracy of polar motion,the LS+Informer(least-squares extrapolation and Informer,LS+Informer)prediction model is proposed based on the traditional LS+AR prediction model combined with deep learning method.The mean absolute error(MAE)was used as the evaluation index based on LS+AR forecast model and Bulletin A fore-cast results.After LS+Informer method is adopted,the medium and long term prediction accuracy of PMX and PMY components of polar motion can be significantly improved,and the amplitude can reach 61.94％and 64.86％respectively.At the same time,the MAE value can be controlled within 10 mas in the medium and long term 365-day phase.The results show that the prediction accuracy of LS+In-former model is better than that of LS+AR model,and better than that of Bulletin A.The results demonstrate that the LS+Informer model can be effectively used in medium and long term polar mo-tion prediction.关键词
Transformer模型/Informer模型/LS+AR模型/极移/平均绝对误差Key words
Transformer model/Informer model/LS+AR model/polar motion/MAE分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王丹丹,乔书波,程栋梁,徐海龙,闫亚明..LS+Informer用于极移预报的方法研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2025,45(9):899-904,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42474043). National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42474043. （42474043）
