电测与仪表2025，Vol.62Issue(9)：62-72,11.DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2025.09.007
动态分时电价下居民用户需求响应基线负荷预测方法
A baseline load forecasting method for residential demand response under dynamic time-of-use electricity price
摘要
Abstract
Accurately forecasting the customer baseline load(CBL)is of great significance for the incentive-based demand response in terms of determining the scheduling demand and quantifying the customer response.In recent years,with the gradual implementation of the dynamic time-of-use electricity price policy,the power consumption behavior of residential customers will become more complex and changeable.The impact of price fluctuation is not considered in the existing CBL forecasting methods,so there are large errors in the forecasting results.Therefore,a CBL forecasting method for residential customers suitable for dynamic time-of-use electricity price is proposed.The electricity consumption behavior of residential customers under the dynamic time-of-use electricity price is modeled as a household energy optimization management problem.By adjusting the weight between the two indicators of cus-tomer comfort and economy,the load data of customers with different preferences under the dynamic time-of-use e-lectricity is simulated.Secondly,the impact of electricity price fluctuations on CBL is considered from the peak-valley attributes of the period to be forecasted and the electricity price difference between the curr-ent period and the adjacent period.The peak-valley attributes and price difference are extracted as input features together with the his-torical load to forecast residential CBL.The method proposed in this paper is compared with the traditional CBL forecasting method,and the results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the CBL forecasting effect under the dynamic time-of-use electricity price.关键词
分时电价/需求响应/基线负荷/预测/电价差Key words
time-of-use electricity price/demand response/baseline load/forecasting/electricity price difference分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
胡可心,李康平,刘春阳,纪陵,米增强..动态分时电价下居民用户需求响应基线负荷预测方法[J].电测与仪表,2025,62(9):62-72,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划政府间国际科技创新合作重点专项(2018YFE0122200) （2018YFE0122200）
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(52107103) （52107103）
中国华电集团"揭榜挂帅"制项目(CHDKJ21-01-107) （CHDKJ21-01-107）
