福建师范大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.41Issue(5)：57-64,8.DOI:10.12046/j.issn.1000-5277.2024090024
黄河流域绿色全要素能源利用效率的发展演化与碳减排效应研究
Prediction of the Development Trend of Green Total-Factor Energy Utilization Efficiency and Its Carbon Reduction Effects in the Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Taking 70 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2022 as the research ob-ject,the Super-SBM model is used to calculate the green total-factor energy utilization efficiency of cities.The spatial Markov chain is employed to predict its development and evolution trends,and the spatial Durbin model is applied to analyze the spatial spillover effects of green total-factor energy uti-lization efficiency on urban carbon emissions.The results showed that:(1)During the research peri-od,the overall green total-factor energy utilization efficiency in the Yellow River Basin exhibited a U-shaped trend,and the average green total-factor energy utilization efficiency of each city followed the pattern of downstream>upstream>midstream.(2)The development trend of green total-factor en-ergy utilization efficiency in the Yellow River Basin is positive,and the proportion of high-level cit-ies is expected to increase in the future.A phenomenon of"efficiency lock-in"will occur during the development process,although instability persists.(3)The utilization efficiency of green total-factor energy has a significant carbon emission reduction effect,and the spillover effect is stronger.The level of economic development,urbanization,population density all contribute to the acceleration of carbon emissions.关键词
黄河流域/绿色全要素能源利用效率/碳减排/城市/动态演进/空间杜宾模型/空间马尔可夫链Key words
Yellow River Basin/green total-factor energy utilization efficiency/carbon emis-sion reduction/city/dynamic evolution/spatial Durbin model/spatial Markov chain分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
薛建春,曹凌辰,孙斌,丁志斌..黄河流域绿色全要素能源利用效率的发展演化与碳减排效应研究[J].福建师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,41(5):57-64,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42061051) （42061051）
教育部春晖计划项目(HZKY20220442) （HZKY20220442）
内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2022LHMS07003) （2022LHMS07003）
