干旱区地理2025，Vol.48Issue(9)：1578-1588,11.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.657
基于MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下准噶尔沙蒿(Artemisia songarica)在新疆的潜在分布
Predicting the potential distribution of Artemisia songarica in Xinjiang under climate change based on the MaxEnt model
摘要
Abstract
Artemisia songarica is a crucial species in desert and semi-desert ecosystems,significantly contribut-ing to the maintaince of ecological balance in Xinjiang of China.Using the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model,this study predicts the potential suitable habitat distribution of A.songarica under current and future climate sce-narios(2041-2060 and 2081-2100)and analyzes the main environmental factors driving its distribution pat-tern.The key findings are as follow:(1)Under current climatic conditions,the potential suitable habitats of A.songarica are primarily located in northern Xinjiang and along the oasis margins of the dessert in southern Xinji-ang,covering approximately 57.95×104 km2.The main environmental determinants include the human footprint index(hfp),precipitation seasonality(bio15),precipitation of the driest month(bio14),isothermality(bio3),and the mean diurnal temperature range(bio2).(2)Excluding human influence factors,a significant expansion of the species'potential distribution,with an increase in habitat suitability and more consistent habitat connectivity is observed.This suggests that human activities have a detrimental impact on survival and development.(3)Under future climatic scenarios,the potential distribution of suitable habitats largely overlaps with the current distribu-tions.In low radiative forcing scenarios(SSP126)and moderately stable scenarios(SSP245),suitable habitats ini-tially expand and then experience slight contraction.Expansion primarily occurs along the northern edge of Hami City and the southern borders of Hotan and Kashgar Prefectures,while contraction areas are concentrated in the Junggar Basin and southern oasis margins.Under a high radiative forcing scenario(SSP585),suitable habitats ex-pand eastward along the current distribution boundary.Additionally,the centroid of potential suitable habitat is projected to shift toward lower latitudes,with migration distance positively correlated with the intensity of radia-tive forcing.关键词
准噶尔沙蒿/MaxEnt模型/人类足迹指数/潜在适生区/气候变化Key words
Artemisia songarica/MaxEnt model/human footprint/potential suitable habitat/climate change引用本文复制引用
李文华,李生宇,徐新文,苗佳敏,吕振涛..基于MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下准噶尔沙蒿(Artemisia songarica)在新疆的潜在分布[J].干旱区地理,2025,48(9):1578-1588,11.基金项目
第三次新疆综合科学考察课题(2021xjkk0305) （2021xjkk0305）
新疆交投科研项目(XJJTZKX-FWCG-202401-0043)资助 （XJJTZKX-FWCG-202401-0043）
