农业研究与应用2025，Vol.38Issue(4)：358-370,13.DOI:10.20191/j.cnki.2095-0764.2025.04.007
中缅谷物贸易研究
Research on China-Myanmar Grain Trade—An Empirical Analysis Based on the Gravity Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]As important partners under the framework of the Belt and Road Initia-tive(BRI)and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP),China and Myanmar are highly complementary in agricultural resources,but the mechanism and policy optimization path of grain trade between the two countries have not been fully revealed.Taking the total bilateral trade of rice,corn and other core cereals as the research object,this study aimed to quantify the influenc-ing factors of China-Myanmar grain trade,clarify the direction and intensity of economic,policy and natural variables on trade volume,and provide scientific basis for deepening regional agricultur-al cooperation and optimizing the structure of grain trade.[Method]The panel data of China-Myan-mar grain import and export trade from 2013 to 2023(covering 8 categories of HS coded commodi-ties such as rice,corn and wheat)were collected to analyze the current situation of China-Myanmar grain trade.Based on the grain trade data between China and trading countries from 2013 to 2023,this paper constructed an expanded gravity model to determine the impact of relevant variables through fixed-effect regression analysis and robust test.[Result]For economic and environmental factors,national GDP significantly promoted trade volume(α1=0.623,P<0.01),and the trade volume increased by 0.752%on average for every 1%increase in GDP,followed by the positive effect of population size(α2=0.321,P<0.05).For policy and institutional factors,trade freedom(α5=0.178,P<0.1),and involving in"Belt and Road"cooperation(α8=0.415,P<0.05)and RCEP(α9=0.387,P<0.05)positively influenced trade volume,but the increase of tax rate signifi-cantly inhibited trade growth(α7=-0.293,P<0.05).For natural and productive factors,geographi-cal distance had a significantly negative correlation with trade volume(α3=-0.489,P<0.01),and trade volume decreased by 0.489%for every 1%increase in transportation cost;crop yield index(α4=0.204,P<0.05)was found to promote the trade by improving supply capacity.For exchange rate mechanism,exchange rate fluctuations showed a slight but positive influence on trade volume(α6=0.067,P<0.05),reflecting the stimulation of local currency appreciation on imports.[Conclu-sion]The China-Myanmar grain trade showed the characteristics of"rapid growth but significant deficit",which was driven by multiple factors.Rice and corn accounted for more than 90%of the trade among the grain products,and the core factors such as economic scale expansion,policy coor-dination and production level improvement drove the development of the trade.Geographical barri-ers and high tax rates constituted the main constraints.Based on this,the following policy sugges-tions were put forward:relying on RCEP and the"Belt and Road"framework,a green channel for grain trade and a mutual recognition system for quality inspection should be established;cross-border logistics infrastructure should be optimized and digital technology should be promoted to reduce transportation losses;tax rates should be differentially managed,and a tiered preferential tax rate for basic staple grains such as rice and corn should be implemented to reduce trade costs;agricultur-al science and technology cooperation should be strengthened to create cross-border agricultural demonstration areas that could improve the grain yield per unit area in Myanmar through the transfer of water-saving irrigation technology.关键词
中缅谷物贸易/引力模型/国家GDP/汇率/作物产量指数Key words
China-Myanmar grain trade/gravity model/national GDP/exchange rate/crop yield index分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
闭盟华,吴广丽,钟翠,陆光顺,郭宇,钟秀萍,卢庆南,温国泉..中缅谷物贸易研究[J].农业研究与应用,2025,38(4):358-370,13.基金项目
广西壮族自治区农业科学院稳定资助科研团队业务专项(桂农科2021YT079,桂农科2021YT080) （桂农科2021YT079,桂农科2021YT080）
广西壮族自治区农业科学院科技发展基金资助项目(桂农科2021ZX06) （桂农科2021ZX06）
广西壮族自治区农业科学院基本科研业务专项(桂农科2017YM25). （桂农科2017YM25）
