经济与管理2025，Vol.39Issue(5)：19-27,9.
房地产价格波动对系统性金融风险的影响
The Impact of Real Estate Price Fluctuations on Systemic Financial Risk:Based on Nonlinear Effects and Spatial Spillover Effects
巴曙松 1马潇逸 1李子辰1
作者信息
- 1. 北京大学汇丰商学院,广东 深圳 518055
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
As a pillar industry of the national economy,price fluctuations in the real estate sector have always been key variables affect-ing macroeconomic and financial stability.Based on provincial-level data from China spanning from 2004 to 2023,this study intro-duces a quadratic term for housing price fluctuations to construct a panel regression equation,elucidating the differential impact of real estate price fluctuations on systemic financial risk through multiple transmission channels.By integrating housing price fluctuations with a Spatial Durbin Model(SDM)and employing an economic-geographical nested matrix to measure interregional systemic risk spillover pathways,the study reveals the amplification mechanism of spatial correlation networks on systemic financial risk.The findings indicate that real estate price fluctuations exhibit a U-shaped effect on systemic financial risk-initially suppressing and later promoting risk-with this effect being particularly pronounced in the eastern regions.The mechanism analysis shows that housing price fluctuation will reduce systemic financial risk through the wealth effect and collateral effect,while the crowding-out effect and refinancing ratchet effect will increase systemic financial risk to a certain extent.Additionally,an increase in real estate price fluctuations in economically and geographically proximate provinces exerts a positive spillover effect on neighboring regions' systemic financial risk.Furthermore,the di-rect and indirect spatial spillover effects of real estate price fluctuations on systemic financial risks are more significant in the eastern re-gion.关键词
房地产价格/系统性金融风险/空间杜宾模型Key words
real estate price/systemic financial risk/Spatial Durbin Model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
巴曙松,马潇逸,李子辰..房地产价格波动对系统性金融风险的影响[J].经济与管理,2025,39(5):19-27,9.
