林业经济问题2025，Vol.45Issue(5)：471-479,9.DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.20250324
中国森林碳汇空间溢出效应与经济驱动影响因素研究
The Spatial Spillover Effects and its Economic Driving Factors of Forest Carbon Sinks in China
摘要
Abstract
⑴ Background——Forest carbon sinks are regarded as the key ecological indicators for achieving China's"dual carbon"goals and promoting sustainable forest development.Given the significant heterogeneity in forest carbon sinks capacity among various provinces,spatial heterogeneity and economic driving mechanisms are cruci-al for the development of regional comprehensive carbon governance.Although academic attention to the evolution of forest carbon sinks is increasing,few studies have utilized spatial econometric models to explore the spatial spillover effects of economic factors on forest carbon sinks. ⑵ Methods——This paper used the Forest Stock Volume Expansion method to estimate the forest carbon stocks of 31 provinces(municipalities,autonomous regions)in China during the six national forest inventories from 1993 to 2018.The spatiotemporal dynamics and agglomeration characteristics of forest carbon sinks were an-alyzed by using the Global Moran's I and Kernel Density Estimation.Furthermore,the Spatial Durbin Model was applied to examine the economic driving factors of the spatial spillover effects on regional carbon sinks.The re-search data was mainly sourced from the IPCC reports,the China Statistical Yearbooks,and the annual statistical yearbooks of various provinces. ⑶ Results——First,the total forest carbon sinks in China has been continuously and significantly increas-ing from 1993 to 2018,but there are obvious differences in carbon sinks growth among regions.Second,the spa-tial autocorrelation analysis reveals significant spatial agglomeration effects in China's forest carbon sinks,with high-high clusters predominantly concentrated in Southwest China and the Yangtze River Basin.Third,the esti-mation of the Spatial Durbin Model indicates that he artificial afforestation area has a significant direct and indi-rect positive effects on forest carbon sinks.In contrast,the cultivated land area,the secondary industry index,and government fiscal expenditure show varying degrees of negative spatial spillover effects,especially with the cultivated land area showing a significant negative impact on the regional forest carbon sinks capacity. ⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Based on the above research conclusions,the following policy sug-gestions are proposed:First,adopt differentiated carbon sinks growth paths based on the varying resource endow-ments of different regions and integrate these paths with the"dual carbon"strategy.Continuously increase eco-logical compensation and fiscal transfer payments to the key ecological functional areas in the western regions,optimize the land use structures in the central and eastern regions,and accelerate the establishment of a multi-re-gional linked carbon sinks trading market.Second,construct differentiated carbon sinks assessment standards and ecological performance evaluation systems,improve spatial layout and hierarchical and classified management mechanisms,and enhance the precision and flexibility of carbon sinks governance.Third,establish cross-regional spatial coordination mechanisms,improve cross-regional ecological compensation mechanisms,strengthen the horizontal linkage of fiscal and ecological resources among regions,and promote the sharing of experience and re-sources in areas such as artificial afforestation areas,carbon sinks accounting and forestry projects.关键词
森林碳汇/空间异质性/空间杜宾模型/空间溢出效应/经济驱动因素Key words
forest carbon sinks/spatial heterogeneity/Spatial Durbin Model/spatial spillover effects/economic driving factors分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈铮,陈步云,吴松泽,陈楠,林彦博,陈潜..中国森林碳汇空间溢出效应与经济驱动影响因素研究[J].林业经济问题,2025,45(5):471-479,9.基金项目
福建省社会科学基金重大项目(FJ2022JDZ034)、福建农林大学习近平生态文明思想研究院开放课题立项(STWMSX23-06) （FJ2022JDZ034）
