面向碳达峰的中国能源系统转型路径及其异质性分析
Analysis of Transition Path and Heterogeneity of China's Energy System Under the Goal of Carbon Peaking
摘要
Abstract
Scientifically designing multiple paths of low-carbon transition of China's energy system and clarifying their heterogeneity is a necessary prerequisite for achieving the goal of carbon peaking.Based on the EnergyPLAN model,a system composed of multiple departments of electricity,heat,industry and transportation is constructed.Through model simulation,the seasonal heterogeneity,departmental heterogeneity and cost heterogeneity of system transition are investigated.The results show that:(1)in winter,under the comprehensive influence of continental air mass,low temperature and sunshine,wind power generation accounts for the largest proportion,followed by hydropower generation and solar power generation is the smallest.Summer is a period of abundant water and solar energy,but it may induce excessive power production.In spring,boiler heating and combined heat and power are gradually replaced by coal-fired power plants.Due to the advantages of low resource consumption and stable energy supply,nuclear power is accelerating its development.Due to scattered resources and difficulties in collection and transportation,the output contribution of biomass energy and geothermal energy needs to be improved.(2)The power sector is the vanguard of transformation work.Coal consumption is dominant in the thermal sector,and the proportion of natural gas as a transitional energy source is on the rise.In addition,the reasonable introduction of biomass energy is beneficial to carbon emission reduction.The promotion of advanced technologies such as electric furnace steel can help to solve the bottleneck of industrial sector transition.The transition of the transportation sector should focus on promoting carbon reduction by saving energy.(3)Due to the"ballast stone"role of coal in ensuring energy supply during the period of carbon peaking,the fuel cost accounts for the largest proportion.The carbon emission cost is the second under the benchmark path,and the investment cost is the second under the low-carbon and enhanced low-carbon paths due to the increase of transition cost.The carbon emission cost ranks last under the enhanced low-carbon path,which is due to the collaborative energy consumption of multiple departments and the exploratory application of carbon capture technology.关键词
能源系统/低碳转型/发展路径/EnergyPLAN模型Key words
energy system/low-carbon transition/development path/EnergyPLAN model分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
李乔楚,罗平亚,张鹏,陈军华..面向碳达峰的中国能源系统转型路径及其异质性分析[J].全球能源互联网,2025,8(5):530-541,12.基金项目
国家社会科学基金西部项目("双碳"目标下我国城市群能源系统碳达峰预测及差异化减排路径研究,22XGL019) （"双碳"目标下我国城市群能源系统碳达峰预测及差异化减排路径研究,22XGL019）
国家社会科学基金重大项目(能源革命驱动下的天然气产业高质量发展路径研究,22&ZD105) （能源革命驱动下的天然气产业高质量发展路径研究,22&ZD105）
四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地学术研究专项资助(新质生产力赋能四川天然气产业高质量发展的作用机理及政策建议,SC24E091) （新质生产力赋能四川天然气产业高质量发展的作用机理及政策建议,SC24E091）
成都市哲学社会科学规划项目(面向深度脱碳的成都新型能源体系构建研究,2024BS072). The National Social Science Fund of China(Research on Carbon Peaking Prediction and Differentiated Emission Reduction Pathways for Energy Systems in China's Urban Agglomerations Under the"Dual Carbon"Goals,22XGL019) （面向深度脱碳的成都新型能源体系构建研究,2024BS072）
The National Social Science Fund of China(Research on High-quality Development Pathways for the Natural Gas Industry Driven by Energy Revolution,22&ZD105) （Research on High-quality Development Pathways for the Natural Gas Industry Driven by Energy Revolution,22&ZD105）
Special Research Funding Project of Sichuan Provincial Key Research Base for Philosophy and Social Sciences(The Mechanism and Policy Recommendations for New Quality Productive Forces to Empower High-quality Development of Sichuan's Natural Gas Industry,SC24E091) （The Mechanism and Policy Recommendations for New Quality Productive Forces to Empower High-quality Development of Sichuan's Natural Gas Industry,SC24E091）
Chengdu Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project(Research on the Construction of Chengdu's New Energy System towards Deep Decarbonization,2024BS072). （Research on the Construction of Chengdu's New Energy System towards Deep Decarbonization,2024BS072）
