全球能源互联网2025，Vol.8Issue(5)：580-593,14.DOI:10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.20240349
基于Tapio-LMDI-LEAP模型的碳排放研究
Carbon Emission Research Based on Tapio-LMDI-LEAP Model
摘要
Abstract
The challenge of climate change is becoming increasingly severe,carbon emissions have become a focus issue of widespread concern in the international community.Taking Guizhou Province,a pioneer area of ecological civilization construction in China,as an example,this article constructs a progressive research chain of"Tapio decoupling analysis-LMDI driven decomposition-LEAP scenario simulation",conducts in-depth research on carbon emission issues,accurately identifies regional emission reduction bottlenecks,and puts forward suggestions for future low-carbon development.The research finds that from 2000 to 2022,there was no decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions in Guizhou Province,presenting as a growth connection state and a weak decoupling state.The six influencing factors of terminal energy carbon emissions changes in Guizhou Province,ranked by contribution degree,are as follows:economic output effect,energy intensity effect,energy consumption structure effect,industrial structure effect,carbon emission coefficient effect,and population size effect.Under different development scenarios,the peak time of carbon emissions in Guizhou Province varies.The energy intensity adjustment,energy consumption structure adjustment and comprehensive scenarios are expected to reach their peaks in 2029,while the benchmark and industrial structure adjustment scenarios are expected to reach their peaks in 2032.关键词
经济发展/碳排放/Tapio脱钩/LMDI模型/LEAP模型/贵州省Key words
economic development/carbon emissions/Tapio decoupling/LMDI model/LEAP model/Guizhou Province分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
宋杰,杨迪,鄂德军,宋婷婷,韩松..基于Tapio-LMDI-LEAP模型的碳排放研究[J].全球能源互联网,2025,8(5):580-593,14.基金项目
贵州省科学技术基金项目(黔科合基础zk[2025]面上599). Science and Technology Fundation of Guizhou Province(zk[2025]599). （黔科合基础zk[2025]面上599）
