热带气象学报2025，Vol.41Issue(4)：468-475,8.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2025.040
基于中国台风巨灾模型"风·眼"的台风定量损失评估
Quantitative Loss Assessment of Typhoons Based on the Chinese Typhoon Disaster Model"Eye of Wind"
摘要
Abstract
To address the slow development of typhoon catastrophe insurance in China,insufficient risk quantification abilities,and lack of sophisticated catastrophe models for the quantitative catastrophic loss assessment,China Re Catastrophe Risk Management Company,in collaboration with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences and other professional research institutions,has successfully developed a real-time typhoon loss assessment system called"Eye of Wind".This typhoon catastrophe model,engineered for the insurance industry,is based on independent intellectual property rights.Utilizing the"Eye of Wind"system across different typhoon forecast path scenarios,this study conducts a quantitative pre-assessment of potential economic losses from two representative typhoons in 2023,"Saola"and"Khanun".According to the model's estimation,Typhoon"Saola"would cause comprehensive property damage losses of approximately 1.5-6.7 billion CNY in some areas of Guangdong Province,Fujian Province,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,and Jiangxi Province,including residential,industrial and mining enterprises,and public infrastructure losses.For Typhoon"Khanun",the model predicts it would cause 50-500 million CNY in similar aspects of losses in affected regions of Liaoning Province,Jilin Province,and Heilongjiang Province.Compared with actual conditions,the results show that the"Eye of Wind"model performs well in simulating the disaster losses.This model will provide crucial technical support for the typhoon catastrophe identification,quantitative assessment,actuarial pricing,portfolio optimization,risk accumulation control,and reinsurance structuring,significantly enhancing China's insurance industry in typhoon catastrophe risk management.关键词
巨灾模型/损失评估/巨灾保险/风险减量Key words
catastrophe model/loss assessment/catastrophe insurance/risk reduction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈思宁,赵艳霞,宫婷,赵大军,张祎,孙擎,杨彩凤..基于中国台风巨灾模型"风·眼"的台风定量损失评估[J].热带气象学报,2025,41(4):468-475,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划课题(2023YFC3008503) （2023YFC3008503）
中国气象局"金融气象"重点创新团队项目(CMA2024ZD03) （CMA2024ZD03）
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2025J100) （CXFZ2025J100）
中国气象服务协会气象科技创新平台项目(CMSA2024MB014)共同资助 （CMSA2024MB014）
