气象科学2025，Vol.45Issue(3)：341-351,11.DOI:10.12306/2023jms.0038
南京极端小时降水特征统计及基于环境的判别方法研究
Characteristics of extreme hourly precipitation in Nanjing and environment-based discrimination method
摘要
Abstract
A discrimination method for extreme hourly precipitation forecasts in Nanjing based on the circulation background and environmental parameters is developed in this paper by statistically analyzing the climatic characteristics,synoptic patterns,environmental conditions,and forecast thresholds using hourly observed precipitation data and ERA5 reanalysis gridded datasets for the past 30 years.The results suggest that extreme hourly precipitation frequency has increased over the past 30 years,with a concentration around June to August.The daily variation exhibits a"double peak and double valley"feature,with summertime afternoon to evening occurrences predominating and rising morning occurrences in the other months.Precipitation in south Nanjing is more likely to be augmented in the morning as opposed to north-central Nanjing,where it happens more frequently and tends to occur in the late afternoon and evening.Extreme hourly precipitation can be subjectively categorized into seven synoptic patterns:northwest trough type,westerly short-wave trough type,plateau trough or south branch trough type,north cold vortex with southwest airflow type,northeast cold vortex with northwest airflow type,between mid-latitude and subtropical highs type,typhoon type.In various meteorological situations,environmental parameters have features that change substantially.The weather conceptual model and environmental parameter characteristics are integrated to establish the extreme hourly precipitation discrimination method in Nanjing,which provides support for the heavy precipitation short-time forecast and nowcasting in Nanjing.关键词
极端小时降水/形势背景/气候特征/天气概念模型/环境参数特征Key words
extreme hourly precipitation/synoptic circulations/climatic characteristics/conceptual models/key environmental parameter features分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
颜海帆,戴竹君,刘梅,曹玥瑶,孙轶..南京极端小时降水特征统计及基于环境的判别方法研究[J].气象科学,2025,45(3):341-351,11.基金项目
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J007) （CXFZ2024J007）
中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室开放研究课题(23SWQXM008) （23SWQXM008）
南京气象科技创新研究院北极阁基金资助项目(BJG202510) （BJG202510）
江苏省气象局面上资助项目(KM202515) （KM202515）
江苏省气象局面上资助项目(KM202207) （KM202207）
江苏省气象局青年基金资助项目(KQ202315) （KQ202315）
