气象科学2025，Vol.45Issue(3)：352-366,15.DOI:10.12306/2023jms.0029
滇中地区6-10月短时强降水环境参数特征及天气学概念模型
Environmental parameter characteristics and synoptic conceptual model of short-time heavy rainfall in Central Yunnan from June to October
摘要
Abstract
Based on the hourly precipitation data of National observation stations in central Yunnan from 2000 to 2021 and the NCEP 1 °×1 ° reanalysis data,the main weather systems and key physical characteristics of short-time heavy precipitation process are analyzed.The results show that the monthly accumulative times of short-time heavy precipitation processes in central Yunnan are single peak type,especially the high-frequency period of short-time heavy precipitation processes are from June to August.The short-time heavy precipitation processes mainly occur from June to October.According to the screening conditions,272 near moments of 99 short-time heavy precipitation processes are selected and three conceptual models of short-time heavy precipitation in central Yunnan from June to October are established:type of northeast flow at the bottom of the subtropical high,type of convergence between two high pressures and type of high pressure ridges.The shear line of 700 hPa are the key systems of short-time heavy precipitation.The three weather flow patterns have different proportions in different months,and the occurrence frequency and diurnal variation of each station have their own characteristics.The characteristics of the key physical parameters of the three weather flow patterns are analyzed from the four aspects which are energy condition,stratification condition,water vapor condition and dynamic condition.The energy conditions in central Yunnan are obviously different from those in other parts of China.The water vapor condition in the whole layer is significantly lower than that in other areas of China,but the water vapor condition in the middle and lower layers is better.The statistical results of unstable stratification conditions are close to most areas of China,but different from a few areas.In terms of dynamic conditions,both the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere have certain rising conditions,although the values are not very large,with moderate SWEAT and low vertical wind shear,which can be used as a reference in the practical forecast business.关键词
滇中地区/短时强降水/物理量/概念模型Key words
central Yunnan/short-time heavy precipitation/physical quantity/conceptual model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
周泓,韩敏,周晓宇,陆雯茜,许彦艳..滇中地区6-10月短时强降水环境参数特征及天气学概念模型[J].气象科学,2025,45(3):352-366,15.基金项目
云南省重点研发计划—社会发展专项(202203AC100005) （202203AC100005）
云南省气象局创新团队资助项目(2022CX07) （2022CX07）
