水利水电技术（中英文）2025，Vol.56Issue(8)：1-18,18.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.08.001
1961-2020年珠江流域极端气温和降水复合事件的时空演变特征分析
Spatiotemporal variations of compound extreme temperature and precipitation events in Pearl River Basin from 1961 to 2020
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The Pearl River Basin is an important economic and densely populated area in China,frequently affected by extreme temperature and precipitation events.Studying the spatiotemporal variations of compound extreme events is vital for regional climate adaptation management.[Methods]Based on meteorological observation data from 1961 to 2020,this study employs the relative threshold method and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)to identify four types of compound extreme events:hot-dry,hot-wet,cold-dry,and cold-wet.Trend analysis and spatial distribution studies were conducted to reveal the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and trends of these compound events.[Results]The result indicate a significant negative correlation between temperature and SPEI in the Pearl River Basin from 1961 to 2020,particularly prominent in the western and southern regions during summer and winter.Notably,there has been a substantial increase in hot-wet events and a significant decrease in cold-dry events,with the most pronounced changes occurring in the early 21st century.Hot-wet events were mainly concentrated in the southeastern and southern coastal areas of the basin,and hot-dry events frequently occur in the western and southern regions.Cold-wet events are common in the northwest,and cold-dry events are most frequent in the northeast.In terms of intensity,hot-dry events are mainly classified as strong or medium,with their duration far exceeding that of hot-wet,cold-wet,and cold-dry events.From 1991 to 2020,the occurrence frequencies of hot-wet and hot-dry events increased by 24％and 99％,respectively,while those of cold-wet and cold-dry events decreased by 9％and 41％.Regionally,hot-dry events are most frequent in plains and hilly areas,particularly in Hainan Island and the South China Sea Islands,whereas cold-wet events are more prominent in mid-altitude and high-altitude areas.The changes reveal a significant transformation in the regional climate.[Conclusion]The findings indicate a notable increase in the frequency of hot-dry and hot-wet events in the Pearl River Basin,especially in the southern and western regions,reflecting high-risk exposure in these areas under future climate warming.Conversely,the decreasing trend of cold-dry and cold-wet events suggests a shift toward a warmer and wetter climate.Through an in-depth analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics and evolution of compound extreme events,this study provides important scientific evidence and references for climate prediction,response strategies to compound disaster events,and enhancing disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in the Pearl River Basin.关键词
复合事件/极端气温/极端降水/珠江流域/时空演变/气候变化/时空分布/干旱Key words
compound events/extreme temperature/extreme precipitation/Pearl River Basin/spatiotemporal variation/climate change/spatiotemporal distribution/drought分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
周彪,温姗姗,蒋富霜,汪辰钰..1961-2020年珠江流域极端气温和降水复合事件的时空演变特征分析[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2025,56(8):1-18,18.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42005126) （42005126）
