水利水电技术（中英文）2025，Vol.56Issue(8)：91-104,14.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.08.007
城市洪涝风险的组合赋重方法研究与应用:以淮安市为例
Research and application of combined empowerment method for urban flood risk:Take Huai'an City as an example
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Urban flood disasters have caused significant damage to lives and property.An objective and accurate quantitative risk assessment of these disasters is crucial for enhancing urban resilience.[Methods]Huai'an City was selected as the study area.The urban flood risk indicator system was established using the"Hazard-Exposure-Vulnerability(H-E-V)"framework adopted by the IPCC.The relative importance of flood factors was calculated using the random forest algorithm to determine objective weights,while subjective weights were assigned using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).The Kendall coefficient was applied to test the consistency between the weights,and the optimal combined weight was calculated.The refined indicator weights were then used to conduct a detailed risk assessment of urban flood hazards in Huai'an City.[Results]The results showed that:(1)The Kendall test confirmed a coordination coefficient of W=0.145 6,indicating consistency between objective and subjective weights at the 0.05 significance level.(2)The influence of exposure and vulnerability was found to be significantly higher than that of hazard,particularly in areas near major water systems and in regions with high population density.(3)Medium to high-risk areas in Huai'an City were closely associated with the distribution of major rivers and water systems,while Qingjiangpu District,northwest Lianshui County,eastern Huai'an County,and southeastern Huai'an District were also identified as medium to high-risk zones due to the effects of population density and per capita GDP.[Conclusion]Validation using recent extreme disaster points indicated that 88％of these points were located in the medium to high-risk zones of the combined risk level map.These findings are expected to provide valuable insights for improving urban flood disaster management in the future.关键词
城市洪涝灾害/随机森林法/层次分析法/风险评估/淮安市/韧性城市/极端天气/降雨Key words
urban flooding/random forest method/hierarchical analysis/risk assessment/Huai'an City/resilient city/extreme weather conditions/rainfall分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
王金虎,张东晖,王钰尧..城市洪涝风险的组合赋重方法研究与应用:以淮安市为例[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2025,56(8):91-104,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41905026) （41905026）
江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20170945) （BK20170945）
南京信息工程大学人才启动基金项目(2016r028) （2016r028）
中国博士后科学基金第63批面上课题(2018M631554) （2018M631554）
江苏省333高层次人才培养工程资助 （）
江苏省高等教育教改立项研究课题(2023JSJG330) （2023JSJG330）
