水利水电技术（中英文）2025，Vol.56Issue(8)：105-117,13.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.08.008
基于系统动力学的山西省水资源生态足迹核算与预测
Ecological footprint accounting and prediction of water resources in Shanxi Province based on system dynamics
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The issue of sustainable utilization of water resources in Shanxi Province is expected to become increasingly severe under the combined influence of natural and human factors.Therefore,accurate prediction of the development trend of the water resources ecological footprint in the province is essential for ensuring sustainable utilization of water resources.[Methods]A system dynamics model for the sustainable utilization of water resources in Shanxi Province was established using the water resources ecological footprint method and system dynamics method.Four scenarios were designed based on the result of parameter sensitivity analysis:continuation of the status quo(DS1),economic development(DS2),water conservation and pollution prevention(DS3),and comprehensive development(DS4).These scenarios were used to predict the level and degree of sustainable utilization of water resources in Shanxi Province from 2023 to 2050.[Results]The result showed that both the per capita water resources ecological footprint and the ecological carrying capacity in the four scenarios exhibited an increasing trend during the forecast period.However,the average value of the ecological footprint was more than 4.850 times that of the ecological carrying capacity,leading to a water resources deficit.The water resources ecological footprint per 104 RMB of GDP showed a decreasing trend over the years,indicating an effective improvement in water resources utilization efficiency.Despite this,the result of the ecological pressure index of water resources indicated that the pressure on water resources consumption remained high in the study area,and the current utilization was unsustainable.Predictions using the Tapio decoupling model indicated that the relationship between the water resources ecological footprint and economic development remained coordinated and sustainable in most years.[Conclusion]Through comprehensive comparison,scenario DS4 is identified as the most suitable future scenario for the study area.The development indicators associated with this scenario are conducive to promoting the sustainable development of both the socio-economic environment and water resources in Shanxi Province.However,for future water consumption,it is necessary to optimize the water consumption structure,improve water consumption efficiency across industries,and strengthen water conservation awareness across society to promote the sustainable utilization of water resources in the study area.关键词
水资源供需矛盾/水资源生态足迹法/系统动力学法/情景分析/山西省/影响因素Key words
conflict between water resources supply and demand/water resources ecological footprint method/system dynamics method/scenario analysis/Shanxi Province/influencing factors分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王晓庆,李显娜,何凯..基于系统动力学的山西省水资源生态足迹核算与预测[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2025,56(8):105-117,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(52039003) （52039003）
