铁路物流2025，Vol.43Issue(9)：58-64,7.DOI:10.16669/j.cnki.issn.2097-5899.202409030002
基于组合模型的黄大铁路货运量预测研究
Research on Freight Volume Forecasting of Huanghua-Dajiawa Railway Based on a Combined Model
摘要
Abstract
Coal demand in Shandong Province primarily relies on Qingdao-Ji'nan Railway transportation.However,inadequate transportation capacity has become increasingly apparent.Construction of the Huanghua-Dajiawa Railway,spanning Hebei and Shandong provinces,significantly alleviates pressure on coal transportation channels along the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway and provides a crucial solution to insufficient coal transportation capacity.This study collected historical economic,social,and policy data related to the Huanghua-Dajiawa Railway,selected six highly relevant factors influencing freight volume,and used principal component analysis to extract the main influencing factors.By integrating regression models,time series models,and neural network models,a comprehensive weighted freight volume forecasting model was constructed.Combined with historical data,the study completed freight volume prediction and result analysis.Compared to traditional single forecasting models,the composite model reduces mean absolute error through weight combination,effectively improving prediction accuracy and providing a scientific basis for railway transportation plan optimization and organization.关键词
黄大铁路/铁路货运/运量预测/组合模型/主成分分析Key words
Huanghua-Dajiawa Railway/Railway Freight/Freight Volume Forecasting/Combined Model/Principal Component Analysis分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
江路路,高天泽..基于组合模型的黄大铁路货运量预测研究[J].铁路物流,2025,43(9):58-64,7.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2025YJS065) （2025YJS065）
