中国兽医杂志2025，Vol.61Issue(9)：127-133,7.DOI:10.20157/j.cnki.zgsyzz.2025.09.015
"全群检测+精准清除"法在已感染非洲猪瘟病毒猪群中清除病毒的离散-连续混合数学模型推导和应用
Derivation and Application of a Discrete-Continuum Hybrid Mathematical Model for Virus Elimination via the"Whole-Herd Testing and Precision Removal"Strategy in African Swine Fever Virus-Positive Swine Herds
闫之春 1李鹏 2李孝文3
作者信息
- 1. 北京正准农业科技有限公司,北京 石景山 100041
- 2. 美国爱荷华州立大学兽医诊断及生产动物医学系,美国 埃姆斯 50014
- 3. 聊城大学农业与生物学院,山东 聊城 252000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Absttract:The"whole-herd testing and precision removal"strategy has demonstrated remarkable efficacy in field-based elimination of African swine fever(ASF)in China.However,its scientific application still lacks systematic theoretical support.This study pioneers a hybrid,discrete-continuum dynamic model for African swine fever virus(ASFV)transmission under herd-level diagnostic testing scenarios,quantitatively analyzing the impact of viral characteristics and diagnostic parameters on the effectiveness of viral eradication.The model reveals that,following initial detection of ASFV-positive pigs,the viral transmission dynamics are governed by continuous evolution of three sub-population proportions:susceptible(S),exposed(E),and infectious(I)pigs.Meanwhile,the periodic application of"whole-herd testing and precision removal"at the interval T of days introduces discrete intervention nodes,forming a unique discrete-continuum hybrid mathematical model.Derivation and computation of derivatives demonstrates that successful eradication requires the core condition of testing interval T<latent period D,with the initial detected infection base number I0 and diagnostic sensitivity p serving as critical decision parameters.The explicit equation for required testing rounds to eliminate ASFV in the infected herd is derived,proving the existence of optimal testing frequency thresholds for different viral strains.This study provides a theoretical basis for the"early detection and precise sampling"practices,and establishes a quantifiable model to guide precision-oriented ASF eradication strategies.关键词
非洲猪瘟(ASF)/"全群检测+精准清除"法/离散-连续混合数学模型/数学模型推导Key words
African swine fever(ASF)/"whole-herd testing and precision removal"strategy/discrete-continuous hybrid mathematical model/mathematical model derivation分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
闫之春,李鹏,李孝文.."全群检测+精准清除"法在已感染非洲猪瘟病毒猪群中清除病毒的离散-连续混合数学模型推导和应用[J].中国兽医杂志,2025,61(9):127-133,7.
