1990至2021年中国非酒精性脂肪性肝病负担及变化趋势分析OA北大核心
Burden and Changing Trends of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in China From 1990 to 2021
目的 分析1990至2021年中国非酒精性脂肪性肝病(NAFLD)疾病负担变化趋势,为制订其防治策略提供依据.方法 选取2021年全球疾病负担数据库中国1990至2021年NAFLD的标化发病率、患病率、死亡率及伤残调整寿命年(DALY)率,采用Joinpoint 4.2软件计算率的平均年度变化百分比,采用年龄-时期-出生队列模型分析患病率和DALY率的年龄、时期和出生队列效应.结果 与1990年相比,2021年NAFLD发病率和患病率总体呈上升趋势,死亡率和DALY率总体呈下降趋势.患病率和DALY率年龄效应表现为男、女均呈先上升后下降趋势.时期效应以1992至1996年为参考组,患病率时期效应曲线整体呈先下降后上升趋势,2002至2006年为最低点(RR=0.93);DALY率时期效应曲线在1992至2011年呈下降趋势,之后趋于平缓.出生队列效应以1972至1981年为参考组,患病率在总人群、男性及女性群体中均平稳上升;DALY率整体呈先上升后下降趋势,峰值出现在1922至1931年.吸烟和空腹高血糖引起的NAFLD的DALY率在2014年以来呈下降趋势,且随着年龄增长,空腹高血糖逐渐成为主导因素.结论 1990至2021年中国NAFLD患病率呈上升趋势,但DALY率显著下降,提示目前防治策略有效,还应进一步提高居民健康意识,控制NAFLD的发生发展.
Objective To analyze the changing trends of the burden of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)in China from 1990 to 2021 and provide a basis for formulating prevention and treatment strate-gies.Methods The standardized incidence rate,prevalence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life year(DA-LY)rate of NAFLD in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.The average annual percentage change of rate data was calculated by Joinpoint 4.2 and the age,period,and birth cohort effects of the prevalence and DALY rate were analyzed by the age-period-cohort model.Results Compared to 1990,the incidence rate and prevalence of NAFLD have been on the rise,while the mortality and DALY rate have been declining.The age effect curves of prevalence and DALY rate showed an upward trend followed by a downward trend for both males and females.With the period from 1992 to 1996 as the reference group,the period effect curve of prevalence showed a downward trend followed by an upward trend,being the lowest in the period from 2002 to 2006(RR=0.93).The period effect curve of DALY rate showed a downward trend from 1992 to 2011 and then tended to flatten out.With the period from 1972 to 1981 as the reference group,the birth cohort effect curve of prevalence showed a steady upward trend in the general population and both male and female populations.The birth cohort effect curve of DALY rate showed an overall upward trend followed by a downward trend,with the peak occurring in the birth cohort group between 1922 and 1931.The DALY rate of NAFLD caused by smoking and high fasting blood glucose has shown a downward trend since 2014,and fasting blood glucose gradually became the dominant factor as age increased.Conclusions From 1990 to 2021,NAFLD in China has shown a rising prevalence but a significantly declining DALY rate.This suggests that current preven-tion and control strategies are effective,and further efforts should be made to raise residents' health awareness in controlling the occurrence and development of NAFLD.
唐均;郑楠;闫雨鑫;张楠;任晓梅
陕西中医药大学公共卫生学院,陕西咸阳 712046陕西中医药大学公共卫生学院,陕西咸阳 712046陕西中医药大学公共卫生学院,陕西咸阳 712046陕西中医药大学公共卫生学院,陕西咸阳 712046陕西中医药大学公共卫生学院营养与食品卫生学教研室,陕西咸阳 712046
医药卫生
非酒精性脂肪性肝病疾病负担年龄-时期-出生队列模型
non-alcoholic fatty liver diseasedisease burdenage-period-cohort model
《中国医学科学院学报》 2025 (4)
575-581,7
陕西省大学生创新训练计划项目(S202410716062)、陕西省科技计划项目(2024JC-YBMS-729、2025JC-YBMS-1045)、环境相关疾病与中医药防控陕西省高校重点实验室项目和秦创原中医药产业创新聚集区项目(L2024-QCY-ZYYJJQ-X181)
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