中国医学科学院学报2025，Vol.47Issue(4)：575-581,7.DOI:10.3881/j.issn.1000-503X.16339
1990至2021年中国非酒精性脂肪性肝病负担及变化趋势分析
Burden and Changing Trends of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in China From 1990 to 2021
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the changing trends of the burden of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)in China from 1990 to 2021 and provide a basis for formulating prevention and treatment strate-gies.Methods The standardized incidence rate,prevalence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life year(DA-LY)rate of NAFLD in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.The average annual percentage change of rate data was calculated by Joinpoint 4.2 and the age,period,and birth cohort effects of the prevalence and DALY rate were analyzed by the age-period-cohort model.Results Compared to 1990,the incidence rate and prevalence of NAFLD have been on the rise,while the mortality and DALY rate have been declining.The age effect curves of prevalence and DALY rate showed an upward trend followed by a downward trend for both males and females.With the period from 1992 to 1996 as the reference group,the period effect curve of prevalence showed a downward trend followed by an upward trend,being the lowest in the period from 2002 to 2006(RR=0.93).The period effect curve of DALY rate showed a downward trend from 1992 to 2011 and then tended to flatten out.With the period from 1972 to 1981 as the reference group,the birth cohort effect curve of prevalence showed a steady upward trend in the general population and both male and female populations.The birth cohort effect curve of DALY rate showed an overall upward trend followed by a downward trend,with the peak occurring in the birth cohort group between 1922 and 1931.The DALY rate of NAFLD caused by smoking and high fasting blood glucose has shown a downward trend since 2014,and fasting blood glucose gradually became the dominant factor as age increased.Conclusions From 1990 to 2021,NAFLD in China has shown a rising prevalence but a significantly declining DALY rate.This suggests that current preven-tion and control strategies are effective,and further efforts should be made to raise residents' health awareness in controlling the occurrence and development of NAFLD.关键词
非酒精性脂肪性肝病/疾病负担/年龄-时期-出生队列模型Key words
non-alcoholic fatty liver disease/disease burden/age-period-cohort model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
唐均,郑楠,闫雨鑫,张楠,任晓梅..1990至2021年中国非酒精性脂肪性肝病负担及变化趋势分析[J].中国医学科学院学报,2025,47(4):575-581,7.基金项目
陕西省大学生创新训练计划项目(S202410716062)、陕西省科技计划项目(2024JC-YBMS-729、2025JC-YBMS-1045)、环境相关疾病与中医药防控陕西省高校重点实验室项目和秦创原中医药产业创新聚集区项目(L2024-QCY-ZYYJJQ-X181) （S202410716062）
