解放军医学杂志2025，Vol.50Issue(8)：949-957,9.DOI:10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.0441.2024.1114
HBV相关原发性肝癌并发自发性腹膜炎预测模型的建立与评价
Establishment and evaluation of a predictive model for spontaneous peritonitis in HBV-related primary liver cancer
摘要
Abstract
Objective To establish and evaluate a nomogram prediction model for spontaneous peritonitis in HBV-related primary liver cancer.Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 1298 patients with HBV-related primary liver cancer hospitalized in the Kunming Third People's Hospital from January 2012 to December 2022.General data and serological indicators were collected,and patients were divided into infection group(n=262)and control group(n=1036)based on the occurrence of spontaneous peritonitis.Univariate and LASSO regression analyses were used to screen variables,followed by binary logistic regression to analyze the influencing factors of spontaneous peritonitis in HBV-related primary liver cancer patients,leading to the establishment of a nomogram prediction model.Finally,the Hosmer-lemeshow(H-L)goodness of fit test,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve,decision curve analysis(DCA)and clinical impact curve(CIC)were utilized to evaluate the fit degree,accuracy,calibration,and clinical practicability of the nomogram prediction model.Results Single factor analysis revealed significant differences between infection group and control group in portal vein cancer thrombus(PVTT),Child-Pugh grade,China Liver Cancer Staging(CNLC)stage,alcohol consumption history,smoking history,white blood cell count(WBC),neutrophil count(NE),hemoglobin(Hb),fibrinogen(FIB),abnormal prothrombin(PIVKA-Ⅱ),aspartate aminotransferase(AST),alanine aminotransferase(ALT),total protein(TP),prealbumin(PA),γ-glutamyltransferase(GGT),alkaline phosphatase(ALP),cholinesterase(CHE),total bile acid(TBA),total cholesterol(TC),low density lipoprotein(LDL),creatinine(Cr),HBV DNA,CD3+T cells count,CD4+T cells count,CD8+T cells count,CD4+T cells/CD8+T cells ratio,procalcitonin(PCT),serum amyloid A(SAA),interleukin-6(IL-6),high-sensitivity C-reactive protein(hs-CRP),alpha-fetoprotein(AFP),and IL-4(P＜0.05).LASSO regression analysis identified 5 variables:Child-Pugh grade,PVTT,WBC,CHE and hs-CRP.Binary logistic regression analysis indicated that Child-Pugh grade(Grade B:OR=5.780,95％CI 3.271-10.213,P＜0.001;Grade C:OR=14.818,95％CI 7.697-28.526,P＜0.001),PVTT(OR=2.893,95％CI 2.037-4.108,P＜0.001),WBC(OR=1.088,95％CI 1.031-1.148,P=0.002),and hs-CRP(OR=1.005,95％CI 1.001-1.010,P=0.026)were the independent risk factors of spontaneous peritonitis in HBV-related primary liver cancer patients.Using these 4 variables,a nomogram prediction model was constructed and evaluated.The P-value of the H-L goodness of fit test was 0.760.Moreover,the area under ROC curve(AUC)was 0.866,with a sensitivity of 0.870 and a specificity of 0.716.The average absolute error of the calibration curve is 0.022.DCA and CIC analyses demonstrated that the nomogram prediction model possessed some clinical utility.Conclusion The nomogram prediction model for spontaneous peritonitis in HBV-related primary liver cancer patients,constructed using Child-Pugh grade,PVTT,WBC and hs-CRP,exhibits a high fitting degree and accuracy,with the prediction probability highly consistent with the actual occurrence probability,and possesses certain clinical practicability.关键词
慢性乙型肝炎/原发性肝癌/自发性腹膜炎/列线图Key words
chronic hepatitis B/primary liver cancer/spontaneous peritonitis/nomogram分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
魏红艳,陈永臻,田仁海,常丽仙,张映媛,许丹青,刘春云,刘立..HBV相关原发性肝癌并发自发性腹膜炎预测模型的建立与评价[J].解放军医学杂志,2025,50(8):949-957,9.基金项目
昆明市卫生健康委员会卫生科研课题(2023-03-08-001,2022-03-08-008) This work was supported by the Scientific Research Project of Kunming Municipal Health Commission(2023-03-08-001,2022-03-08-008) （2023-03-08-001,2022-03-08-008）
