技术与创新管理2025，Vol.46Issue(5)：509-518,528,11.DOI:10.14090/j.cnki.jscx.2025.0502
技术创新驱动下的陕西交通业低碳路径研究
The Low-Carbon Path for Shaanxi's Transportation Industry Driven by Technological Innovation
摘要
Abstract
The transportation industry has become the third most important sector for national energy consumption and carbon emissions,and the transportation industry in Shaanxi Province has developed rapidly.To achieve the Dual Carbon Gods,it is urgent to promote the low-carbon transformation of the transportation sector within the province.Based on 2022 data of energy consumption terminals in Shaanxi's transportation industry,a low-carbon emission LEAP model was developed to categorize the sector into three divisions:intercity passenger transport,freight transport,and urban passenger trans-port.The model predicts energy demand and carbon emissions under different future scenarios(policy scenario,2℃ scenario,and technological innovation scenario),and analyzes emission reduction poten-tials,providing references for formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan.The results indicate:The carbon peak in Shaanxi's transportation sector will occur between 2030 and 2040,with a peak scale of approx-imately 51.6 to 55 million tons.Freight transportation is the primary source of carbon emissions in Shaanxi's transportation sector,accounting for about 76％of total sectoral emissions.Under the techno-logical innovation scenario,carbon emission intensity decreases by 3.2％,enabling the achievement of the carbon emission intensity target outlined in Shaanxi's 14th Five-Year Plan for transportation.Based on these findings,to attain the Dual Carbon Goals,Shaanxi Province should prioritize the following initi-atives in its 15th Five-Year transportation plan:encouraging technological innovation and application,optimizing the transportation structure,constructing a green and low-carbon transportation network,and developing an intelligent transportation system.关键词
"双碳"目标/陕西交通业/技术创新/LEAP模型/情景分析法/低碳路径Key words
Dual Carbon Goals/Shaanxi transportation industry/technological innovation/LEAP mod-el/scenario analysis/low carbon emission path分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
许建,张奕奕,闫一凡,宋洁..技术创新驱动下的陕西交通业低碳路径研究[J].技术与创新管理,2025,46(5):509-518,528,11.基金项目
陕西省社会科学基金项目"碳中和背景下陕西能源生产革命的动力机制、路径和政策研究"(2021R039) （2021R039）
2022年度教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目"碳中和背景下黄河流域能源生产革命动力机制、路径和政策研究"(22YJA630100) （22YJA630100）
